Status: 03/13/2022 12:57 p.m
In just over two weeks there will be elections in Saarland. All polls point to a change of power. Also because the incumbent Hans made considerable mistakes during the election campaign.
The hair disheveled, the look as worried as combative, the wind blows into the microphone. Tobias Hans falls into dialect in his speech – quite untypical for him – he seems so upset. It is a selfie video that the Prime Minister circulated via Twitter on Tuesday morning, apparently taken in a hurry in front of a petrol station in Saarland.
Topic: fuel prices. They are “crazy” and “the state” is enriching itself from increasing tax revenues, says the CDU top candidate, who is currently at a low point in the polls. The black service limousine can be seen behind him. Hans calls for a fuel price brake and justifies it as follows: “It doesn’t just affect low earners. It really affects the many hard-working people who have to fill up.”
Video backfires
The phrase caused outrage. Many commentators see this as a devaluation of low earners. The video goes viral and hardly anyone gives a good hair to it. Jan Böhmermann recognizes parallels with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, who, however, reports from the war with selfie videos, not from the gas station. The FDP security expert Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann calls the video on “Lanz” “embarrassing” and is visibly struggling to keep her composure.
It’s not the first own goal that Hans has scored in this election campaign. A few weeks ago he invited to the presentation of his “competence team”. The fact that an incumbent prime minister relies on external support in the election campaign is unusual in itself, given that he has a government team and usually at least an official bonus. Armin Laschet also presented a team when things were not going well for himself during the election campaign, with a known outcome.
Election campaign looks badly organized
In the case of Hans, a team member had to leave the evening of the performance. Photos of his cultural expert circulated on social media – without a mask at a Corona demo, near a poster with the inscription “Pandemic Lie”. When the team was put together, apparently nobody on the campaign staff had looked closely. Just as little as with Hans’ Twitter video.
It is surprising that he of all people makes such gross mistakes. Since taking office four years ago, he had relied on media staging. Hans has profiles on all major social media platforms and is a frequent guest on talk shows. Talking is one of his talents. In fact. In this election campaign, however, he is still looking for the right tone and the right topic.
Whether it’s about the economy, social issues or simply about sympathy values: Hans’ challenger Anke Rehlinger from the SPD does better in polls in all areas. Hans himself explains it with Corona. He was the one who had to deliver the bad news. But that alone does not explain the rapidly falling approval ratings. Some accuse Hans of a lurching course in Corona management. Today like this and tomorrow like this.
Playing with populism
In the four years of his tenure, he does not seem to have succeeded in winning the hearts of the Saarlanders. He is not a real “father of the country”. Twitter, Tiktok, Instagram, many older people in Saarland don’t really care. When trying to turn the mood, the CDU increasingly slipped into populism. For example, when the Secretary General explained the poor poll numbers to party members with negative reporting during the polling period.
At the moment it is not clear how Hans could catch up with Rehlinger. His election campaign seems to many observers to be without a concept. A big goal is missing. And Hans himself also lacks experience as a campaigner. He did not win his office, but inherited it, when Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer went to Berlin as Secretary General in 2018. A huge leap of faith from his predecessor and his party. Which he now threatens to gamble away.
All or nothing
For the 44-year-old, it will be all or nothing in just over two weeks. He has not learned a profession outside of politics. If he loses the state chancellery after more than 20 years of CDU rule, that would at least be the temporary end of a remarkably steep career. If he still manages to win, many doors would be open to him, including in Berlin. At the moment, however, there is little evidence that this is the case.