Before the Munich Security Conference: Beijing on a cozy course?

Since China has had economic problems, Beijing’s tone has changed. Government officials appear less aggressive toward democratic countries. Is a new cuddly course announced at the Munich Security Conference?

What Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning recently said about trouble spots in the Middle East describes how the People’s Republic sees its role in the world: “Whenever necessary, we want to help cool down an overheated situation.” Mao and her colleagues have made similar statements since the war in Ukraine dominated the Munich Security Conference last year.

The appearance of China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, was particularly eagerly awaited at the conference. Because China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had recently described themselves as “best friends” with a “borderless partnership”.

Demonstrative unity between Xi and Putin

So who could broker peace if not Xi, many asked themselves. In fact, the 2023 Security Conference initially raised hope in the war against Ukraine. Wang Yi announced a so-called action plan, which was widely interpreted as a peace plan. However, nothing followed that could actually be viewed as active Chinese mediation.

At the same time, Chinese companies sold combat-capable drones to Russia despite export controls. On several occasions in the past year, Xi and Putin presented themselves in demonstrative unity, concluded agreements and vowed to cooperate. They spoke openly about standing for a “new world order” that would function without the USA as the leading nation.

China’s Peace narrative

So what is China announcing at the security conference this year? Janka Oertel, Asia expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says: “There will be a denial that there is such strong support from the Russian government. That the Chinese government is adhering to sanctions, that no heavy weapons are being delivered. ”

This sends the message that the USA in particular is the real aggressor. And that China is only interested in peace. “Regaining this peace narrative will certainly be the most complicated thing at the security conference,” explains Oertel.

Difficult year lies behind China

The year since the last Munich Security Conference has been difficult for China, especially economically. The strict zero-Covid policy with its weeks of brutal lockdowns has shattered the previously strong optimism of many in the People’s Republic. Millions of families lost their savings when huge real estate companies went bankrupt.

The government stopped publishing youth unemployment figures when the rate rose to over 20 percent. And demand for Chinese products abroad declined as many countries began to examine their economic ties with China for risks to national security.

Western companies as China’s lobbyists

At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Prime Minister Li Qiang’s message was: China is an open country, especially for investors, and against barriers between economies. This isn’t a new cuddly course, says Janka Oertel, but simply a tactic.

“The logic that we become independent of the world, but the world must remain dependent on us, these are two elements of a strategy,” says Oertel. “If the whole world becomes more independent of China, then the second part no longer works so well. The fact that Western companies are definitely the best lobby organizations for the Chinese cause can only work if they continue to operate in the Chinese market Stay invested if you buy in China, produce in China.”

“Trump China’s favorite for presidency”

The USA is looking most closely at its economy’s involvement with China. Washington is pursuing a strict course of cutting off the People’s Republic from high technology “made in the USA” – in order to prevent China from using it to build its own weapons systems. For Beijing, this is exacerbating years of tensions that were once triggered by former US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs.

However, Janka Oertel believes that Trump is still Beijing’s favorite for the next US presidency. Because Trump is poison for alliances. Cooperation between Europe and the US and in a broader coalition with Japan, Korea, Australia and Europe would be very difficult to manage due to a lack of trust.

Danger for Taiwan – and Europe

A Trump administration would also view the conflict over Taiwan differently. Because Trump is willing to “make a deal as long as the offer is good enough from the Chinese side,” says Oertel. One consequence could be that Washington abandons the protection of Taiwan that has been enshrined in law in the USA since 1979.

Beijing sees Taiwan as its own territory and is threatening war to make its own claims a reality. And without the American protective power, the People’s Republic could annex the democratically governed island relatively risk-free.

However, Taiwan is extremely important for international supply chains because the world’s most powerful microchips are manufactured there. Important international trade routes also pass through the strait between Taiwan and mainland China.

Janka Oertel hopes that the EU leadership will also concern itself more than before with its position between the major powers China and the USA: “The big danger we are facing right now is that we are trying not to make a decision on either side. “That ultimately leads to us not having the right tools to deal with both China and the USA. And waking up next year in a world in which things have become even more difficult for Europe.”