Before the Madrid summit: How NATO wants to realign itself

Troop reinforcements, support for Ukraine, a China and Russia strategy: which core issues should be negotiated at the NATO summit in Madrid – and where that could become difficult.

Troop reinforcements in the east

More soldiers, more weapons, more manoeuvres: NATO wants to significantly expand its presence in the eastern alliance areas – on water, on land and in the air. It is also about improvements in air surveillance and missile defense. Additional combat groups, so-called multinational battlegroups, are being deployed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, reinforcing the armed forces in Poland and the Baltic countries. Brigade strength is targeted, which would be 3,000 to 5,000 men – led by Germany in Lithuania, Great Britain in Estonia, Canada in Latvia. The troops should train together with the soldiers of the respective partner countries for missions, but not be on site all the time.

After the Russian attack on Ukraine, NATO is also planning to put significantly more soldiers on increased readiness than before. In order to be able to react more flexibly to possible threats, the “rapid reaction force” with currently around 40,000 men, which has been on the alert for months, is to be rebuilt. All in all, the alliance wants to be able to send more than 300,000 men into action within certain deadlines. We’re talking about 10 to 50 days. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks of a fundamental change in the alliance’s deterrence and defense policy – and of a clear signal to Moscow.

support for Ukraine

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is connected to the summit via video, he can count on further aid commitments from NATO. Stoltenberg considers it “extremely important” to strengthen Ukraine’s self-defense capabilities – and has therefore announced extensive supplies even before the summit. Anti-drone systems, for example, or secure communication technology and fuel.

In the longer term, the Western Defense Alliance wants to support Ukraine in replacing its Soviet-era military equipment with modern equipment from NATO countries.

Dispute over northern expansion

Finland and Sweden are also facing a turning point: In view of the cruel Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, both countries want to give up the non-alignment they have practiced for decades. If Finland and Sweden would like to join NATO, they would be welcomed with open arms, Stoltenberg assured in April, pointing out that close military cooperation has existed for a long time.

In addition, NATO is convinced that a northward expansion will not only bring more security for the two Scandinavian countries, but also make the western defense alliance stronger overall. The Finnish army is traditionally designed for land defense and has a large number of artillery systems, the Swedish armed forces have a modern navy with corvettes and submarines. Both countries also bring a strong air force with them.

However, Turkey is on the brakes – which is blocking the accession process. NATO can only accept new members unanimously. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses Sweden and Finland of doing too little against Kurdish extremists and is demanding, among other things, the extradition of PKK supporters. In addition, both countries should give up their arms embargo against Turkey. The governments in Stockholm and Helsinki have signaled that they are accommodating, but initial progress is said to have been made. However, the dispute is not yet off the table – despite a top meeting shortly before the summit.

Of course it would be nice to prepare the way for accession in Madrid, according to the Alliance’s Brussels headquarters. And: If this historic decision were to last a few more days or weeks, that wouldn’t hurt – because in the end Finland and Sweden will be part of NATO. Either sooner or a little later.

New strategic concept

Terror, cyber attacks, extremism, authoritarian rulers. What are the major challenges for NATO in the next ten years? What are the risks? And how should the military alliance react to new threats? The current strategy dates back to 2010. At that time, Russia was still considered a possible partner, and there was no talk of China. Today the security situation is completely different.

NATO has since completely rewritten the Russia chapter. Moscow is now clearly identified as the greatest and most direct threat to the international order. China is seen as a challenge to NATO’s security, interests and values. The USA actually wanted a sharper tone towards Beijing, while Germany, among others, had insisted on a balanced formulation.

NATO also considers the fight against climate change to be a groundbreaking task. The alliance sees increasing global warming as a threat to global stability and to current and future military missions. After all, extreme climatic conditions in the areas of application are already becoming more and more of a burden for people and material. NATO therefore wants to blow fewer greenhouse gases into the air and be climate-neutral by 2050.