Before G7 meeting
Expert: Expensive grain amplifies global imbalance
Sebastian Hess, professor at the University of Hohenheim in the field of agricultural markets, photographed in front of the University of Hohenheim. Photo: Bernd Weißbrod/dpa
© dpa-infocom GmbH
The war in Ukraine is exacerbating the situation on the world grain market. Higher prices put poor countries in trouble. Will the major industrialized countries of the G7 find a common course?
According to an agricultural expert, the rise in grain prices fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating global imbalances.
“Poor countries that are heavily dependent on imports strain their financial reserves to buy grain,” said agricultural scientist Sebastian Hess from the University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim to the German Press Agency.
Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) will discuss the consequences of the war with his counterparts from the major industrialized countries (G7) at Hohenheim Castle on Friday (11:00 a.m.). According to the government, the Ukrainian head of department Mykola Solskyj will also attend to report on the situation in his country. In addition to Germany, the G7 group includes the USA, Canada, France, Great Britain, Italy and Japan.
Creation of inventories in Germany unnecessary
“We have a very tense situation with grain, which is characterized by great uncertainty,” said Hess, referring to the global markets. Regarding the situation in Ukraine, he said: “An attempt is being made to bring grain from last summer’s harvest to Western Europe by train because the Black Sea ports are blocked.”
“We have to expect that bread, rolls and baguettes will become a little more expensive. But that will not threaten our supply situation, »said Hess. He warned against creating unnecessary stocks – states could also try to operate a hamster strategy. “Everyone should avoid stocking up on flour that they realistically never need,” advised Hess.
In view of fears that the new harvest in Ukraine could be severely affected by the war, Hess said: “So far it seems that the worst forecasts for the current year have not come true. But the grain is not yet ripe and has not yet been harvested.” The past harvest was very good, a significant part of it is still in storage. “The supply situation in Ukraine itself must not be forgotten. People must not face a hunger crisis,” warned Hess.
40 percent of the calories consumed worldwide
According to the director of the World Food Program of the United Nations (WFP) in Germany, Martin Frick, the concentration on three types of grain poses a threat to global security of supply. Wheat, corn and rice accounted for 40 percent of the calories consumed worldwide. In order to dissolve these dependencies, one of the things needed is a return to the diversity of crops, such as sorghum, cassava or quinoa. The forgotten plants are often more resistant to the climate crisis and healthier. “More variety on the plate therefore also helps in the fight against hunger,” said Frick.
The FDP faction leader in the Bundestag, Carina Konrad, called for an expansion of food production. «We have to counteract the shortage of agricultural raw materials by increasing yields. Not only in Germany, but worldwide,” she told the dpa before the meeting of the G7 agriculture ministers. “For us, the war in Ukraine means higher food prices, but for the poorest in the world, dramatic hunger.” Plans to expand organic farming with its use of land and resources did not contribute to the solution.
800 million starving people
Welthungerhilfe warned of an “even more drastic increase” in the number of starving people. In order to prevent this, the agriculture ministers would have to initiate appropriate emergency aid as quickly as possible, said Rafael Schneider, Welthungerhilfe’s deputy head of politics, in the “Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung”. Otherwise, the rise in food prices caused by the Ukraine war will continue to drive up the number of starving people. Currently, 800 million people worldwide suffer from hunger.
The reason is not only the war, but there are also “system errors” that Özdemir and his colleagues urgently need to fix. In addition, measures against acute supply bottlenecks should not be at the expense of environmental protection. Welthungerhilfe particularly criticized Özdemir’s plan to facilitate wheat cultivation in order to compensate for the loss of imports from Ukraine.