The CSU and Free Voters could continue their coalition, the AfD would grow, the FDP would be kicked out of the state parliament. These are the key results of a representative survey conducted by the opinion research institute Infratest Dimap on behalf of Bayerischer Rundfunk. If the state elections were not in autumn 2023, but already now, the CSU would get 37 percent. That is one percentage point more than in the Bavaria trend from January 2022 and roughly the result of the 2018 election – but a worse value than in the most recent surveys by other institutes, in which the CSU was last around 40 percent. In contrast, the free voters are clearly gaining ground. At the beginning of the year, only eight percent voted for the party of Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger, now it is eleven percent.
The Greens are also improving compared to the previous Bayern trend. They would therefore come to 18 percent (plus two points). The SPD slips from 14 to ten percent. The AfD, on the other hand, which was recently able to increase in polls across Germany, is in a better position again in Bavaria, at twelve percent (plus two), ahead of free voters, SPD and FDP, who, according to the poll, must expect to vote in the 2023 state election failing the five percent hurdle. The Liberals are currently at a weak three percent (minus four), which also reflects the national trend. In Free State, too, the negative assessment of the traffic light coalition in the federal government clearly predominates at 69 percent (plus 27). Only 29 percent (minus 19) say they are satisfied.
Although the CSU and Free Voters could defend their government majority according to the survey, the majority of people in Bavaria also give the black-orange coalition a rather bad report. Only 44 percent of those questioned expressed satisfaction with the work of the state government, 54 percent are dissatisfied. In January 2022, the verdict was still positive for a good half of those surveyed, but criticism of the government’s work now predominates. With a view to the war against Ukraine, the energy crisis and the economic situation, 64 percent of those questioned are worried, according to BR a high in the Bavarian trend that has been recorded since 1998. 61 percent also fear that they will soon no longer be able to pay their bills.