The Bavarian treasury must reckon with a significant drop in forecast tax revenue next year. If the tax estimate in May for the Free State of 2023 predicted an increase of more than two billion euros, this forecast now had to be reduced by 600 million euros. Finance Minister Albert Füracker (CSU) announced this on Friday on the occasion of the autumn tax estimate. This is regionalized data based on the template provided by the federal government. “Basically, I think the current tax estimates are overly optimistic – the economic situation is extremely volatile and uncertain,” stressed Füracker. No one knows what challenges the country will face.
According to the October tax estimate, there will be around 1.3 billion euros more tax revenue for the current year in Bavaria than was forecast in May. But here, too, it is not certain whether the amount of money “really will be received,” said the finance minister. The estimate should not hide the gloomy situation, “according to all forecasts we are at the beginning of a recession”. Means, so to speak: 2022 would be the last fat year for the time being.
The estimated result is the basis for the state budget for 2023. The relief measures that are already in prospect would have to be taken into account in these, as well as the results of the consultations between the prime ministers and the federal chancellor in the middle of next week, said Füracker. Among other things, it should be about a successor to the nationwide local transport ticket. Even with previous relief packages, the states “had to pay without being asked,” he complained. In addition, the state also has high inflation-related additional expenditure everywhere, in construction, in the management of buildings, in fuel, for example for police cars.
For 2023 there will again be a one-year budget instead of double planning as before. One is now “in the final phase” of the conception. The cabinet’s budget retreat should take place as soon as possible, and Füracker wants to present the figures to the state parliament in December – for the detailed deliberations, the king’s right of parliament. A final decision by the state parliament will probably be well into the new year (this year it came at the beginning of April).
In 2022, the budget had a volume of 71.1 billion euros; This also included debt that Füracker took on for the state government’s high-tech agenda, among other things. To do this, he used an unused credit authorization that the state parliament had approved in 2020 to deal with the Corona crisis. In 2023, the minister wants to get by without new debts – according to the plan “today”. However, the “looming backdrop” of the recession and possible further burdens on the part of the federal government also make this imponderable.
“But where is the household?” warns the Green Claudia Köhler
The state parliament already discussed the budget on Thursday – a motion by the Greens, according to which a valid state budget must be available in January, which creates the conditions for a 49-euro ticket. “We need quick solutions in Bavaria, including solutions that cost money,” said Claudia Köhler (Greens). “But where is the household?” Everyone who is dependent on state subsidies, municipalities and companies need “planning security”. Doris Rauscher (SPD) added: “Apart from a lot of whining towards Berlin and lip service, there was once again nothing.” There were no details on the relief package for clubs and social institutions announced by Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU), “the hut is on fire”. The rest of the opposition did not support the motion.
Helmut Kaltenhauser (FDP) interjected that he was curious to see whether the budget really “can do without new borrowing and how many election gifts might be included”. Ferdinand Mang (AfD) warned against “popular expropriation” through “green ideology”.
Ernst Weidenbusch referred to the tax estimate the following day: “Quality comes before speed”. Bernhard Pohl (FW) felt reminded of a joke in the Bundeswehr when the Greens rushed: “Summer is ordered from April 1. That means that no matter what the weather is like, you have to come to work dressed in summer clothes.” Finally, Minister of Construction Christian Bernreiter (CSU) spoke for the state government, representing Füracker. He said of the debate initiated by the Greens: The traffic light “is constantly inventing new special funds and has blank checks issued for them amounting to billions”, while it is still completely open what burdens one has to expect for the state budget. “I mean, I’m in the wrong movie.”