The CSU remains at a low in the survey, the SPD is growing strongly – and Prime Minister Markus Söder’s popularity has suffered. That says the new Bayern trend, the representative survey by Infratest dimap on behalf of the BR political magazine “Kontrovers”. According to this, the CSU would get 36 percent if there were a state election. That means twelve percentage points less than in the BR survey for the state election in January 2021. Compared to surveys by other institutes, in which the CSU was only 32 percent in some cases, the party was able to recover slightly. However, the current value is still below the 2018 election result, when the CSU achieved the second-worst result in its history at 37.2 percent.
The winner is the SPD, which was able to double its value compared to the previous year’s survey, from seven to 14 percent. However, the Social Democrats were also higher in other surveys recently, at up to 20 percent. Here, the federal election is likely to have rubbed off on the values in Bavaria – an effect that is now apparently waning. The Greens are losing year-on-year, they are in second place with 16 percent behind the CSU. AfD and FDP recorded gains: with ten (plus three percentage points) and seven percent (plus four) respectively. The Free Voters remain stable at eight percent.
Söder polarizes the voters
If the state elections in autumn 2023 brought this result, the coalition of CSU and FW would not have a majority. This is reflected in the satisfaction levels with the governing parties. After 66 percent in January 2021, only 45 percent rate the work of the CSU positively – a minus of 21 percentage points. Only 33 percent are satisfied with the Free Voters. With a total of 44 percent, the CSU and FW would have significantly more votes than the Greens, SPD and FDP. The traffic light would come to 37 percent in Bavaria. However, there are 20 months in which the numbers can change – especially since one in three of those who expressed a preference in the survey did not speak of a final decision; including more young voters.
As far as the approval ratings for politicians are concerned, Söder can be happy that he is still in first place: 55 percent of those surveyed are satisfied with him. On the other hand, it was 63 percent in September and 72 percent in the Bayern trend a year ago. At that time, the Free State was in an extensive lockdown and satisfaction with the Corona policy was not only higher in Bavaria, but nationwide than today. You can’t compare the current Söder values ”one to one” with those of the previous year, said CSU Secretary General Markus Blume of the SZ: “That was a completely different political time.” It is striking that Söder has the highest satisfaction ratings – but at the same time 43 percent of those surveyed are dissatisfied with him. Only Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger with 52 percent and Minister of Education Michael Piazolo with 45 percent (both Frankfurt) have higher negative values. The highest approval ratings after Söder have Ilse Aigner, President of the State Parliament, with 52 percent and Minister of Health Klaus Holetschek (both CSU), with 45 percent, who can be considered the biggest climber in this category.
FDP sees itself confirmed
“We want more,” says Blume, but: “The trend is right and the arrow has been pointing upwards since the federal election.” As a reminder: Four months ago, the CSU got 31.7 percent. Blume assesses the fact that a traffic light would not currently have a majority in Bavaria: “The traffic light does not trigger fantasies, but concerns” – “despite the chancellor bonus” of the SPD. FW boss Hubert Aiwanger sees a good starting point for 2023 for his “stable center force”. For Green Party leader Eva Lettenbauer, the survey shows that many people believed their party could “finally bring the necessary progress, that’s exactly what we’re doing now of the federal government”. Florian von Brunn (SPD) says the result has “a lot to do with the fact that we clearly address important issues for Bavaria”: children, affordable housing, fair wages, fair climate protection. AfD boss Stephan Protschka says: Despite media “smear campaigns”, it is possible to “bring our good work from the municipalities to the European Parliament to the citizens”. Martin Hagen (FDP) speaks of the “best Bayerntrend result in twelve years”. It pays off to have “stayed on course even in the face of a rough headwind” in the Corona policy. The BR electoral law expert Andreas Bachmann analyses: Despite the weakness of the CSU, the opposition has “hardly any reason to celebrate” – their problem is that the protagonists are relatively unknown in Bavaria.
47 percent of those surveyed are satisfied with the corona management. For the first time, the course of the state government does not find a majority. There is support from CSU supporters (72 percent) and hardly any support from FW supporters (32). Overall, almost half of the citizens describe the measures as appropriate; one in four, including many supporters of the SPD and Greens, would like even stricter rules. Six out of ten respondents welcome compulsory vaccination for adults.