The surprise follows this Wednesday right at the beginning. The Bavarian metal and electrical employers (Bayme VBM) have invited people to their Munich headquarters to present the latest training figures; usually a matter where, from an entrepreneur’s perspective, the best news is that a few young people have decided to take up training at all. But this time, managing director Bertram Brossardt can announce the “highest increase in over ten years”. Accordingly, the number of training contracts concluded in the metal and electrical industries increased by almost eleven percent in 2023 compared to the previous year. And for the current year, we are expecting at least “a black zero,” says Brossardt, and more likely even “an increase” of a good one percent.
Significantly more trainees? In times when many companies would be happy if they could somehow find their apprenticeships filled? The figures from the metal and electrical industry, which is so strong in Bavaria, sound like good news. Nevertheless, the fundamental dilemma remains. Because demographic change tends to result in more old people retiring than young people coming out of school, the shortage of skilled workers has long since become a shortage of apprentices and trainees.
Brossardt also points this out. “This is a very positive situation for the trainees,” he says. However, it is becoming “increasingly difficult” for companies to find suitable applicants. And this despite the overall increase in training numbers. According to Bayme VMB, a good 86,000 new training contracts were concluded across industries and throughout Bavaria last year, an increase of 4.7 percent. The metal and electrical industries accounted for around 15,000 contracts – a decent result, even compared to the pre-Corona years. Overall, however, the number of positions significantly exceeded the number of interested parties, and almost 20 percent of the training positions remained unfilled. The two most common reasons, according to a survey among companies: There were too few applicants – and no suitable ones. However, what exactly the companies mean by “suitable” was not asked.
In any case, the overall situation can be considered challenging from an economic perspective. Recruiting young talent is largely a zero-sum game: Anyone who joins company A or starts studying B is less likely to do an apprenticeship in C. If the pool of potential skilled workers then shrinks, competition between companies and industries increases. According to school statistics, around 820,000 children and young people studied at Bavaria’s general education schools in the 2003/04 school year. In 2022/23 there were 672,000. It is also foreseeable that particularly few young people will leave school in 2025: This year there will be no nationwide Abitur exams in the Free State due to the switch from eight- to nine-year high schools.
The topic of career orientation is likely to become even more important in the future. Many companies and business organizations have now retrofitted digitally. Among other things, metal and electrical employers rely on tools that can be used in a fun way via smartphone. Young people can use a “swipe test” to evaluate images from the world of the metal and electrical industry on the screen. An algorithm then determines which training could possibly match the answers. At Bayme VBM, the increased number of trainees is a sign that addressing young people is working better. Many of the things that the economy is doing today “we wouldn’t have done before,” admits Brossardt. But that, he says, “was wrong before.”