The Free State of Bavaria continues to grow in terms of its population; in just over two decades, 14 million people will live in the state – a good 600,000 more than currently. This emerges from the regionalized population forecast of the State Office for Statistics, which Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) presented to the authority in Fürth on Monday. The forecast predicts a population of 13.98 million by 2042; the current official figure was 13.37 million people. However, population development varies greatly across regions: some districts will shrink in the future, others will grow significantly.
At the same time, Bavaria’s age structure will change significantly in the future. According to the forecast, the average age of the population will rise from 44 to 45.4 years in the next two decades. The 67 plus age group will grow to 3.2 million people across Bavaria, an increase of around 26 percent compared to today. Overall, rural areas will be more affected by the aging society.
In the long term, the number of births will probably remain below the number of deaths almost everywhere in the Free State. The basis of population growth is therefore migration. Interior Minister Herrmann announced on Monday: “Especially with a view to the future age structure, it is obvious that we are dependent on the targeted and tailor-made immigration of foreign skilled workers from the EU and third countries.” “Illegal and uncontrolled migration like the one we are currently experiencing” will not be able to solve the “problems with young talent” but will create new problems and overwhelm the country’s social systems and ability to integrate.
However, controlled migration is not a panacea for demographic aging: “We are reaching the limits of growth in many places – for example in terms of land consumption or housing construction, especially in the large cities. Our goal must therefore also be to achieve growth in all areas of Bavaria to steer away from overheated metropolitan areas.” To do this, reliable framework conditions must be created in all regions. Many areas outside the big cities have become more attractive for young people in recent decades. Regions that were previously expected to experience significant losses could now expect stable or at most moderately declining population numbers.
The largest increase in population in 2042 will be in the Landshut district, which is already one of the strongest boom regions in the Free State. It can then be assumed that there will be 12.3 percent more residents there. The Kronach district in Upper Franconia is threatened with the most massive decline, minus 9.6 percent. The Bavaria-wide balance up to the date in 18 years is estimated at plus 4.6 percent. The administrative districts of Upper and Lower Franconia have significant predicted population losses: there the districts of Main-Spessart, Rhön-Grabfeld, Lichtenfels, Kulmbach, Hof and Wunsiedel; as well as in the neighboring Upper Palatinate Tirschenreuth. However, there are also growing districts in this northern region, such as Kitzingen and Schwandorf, and quite a few districts also have stable ratings.
Strong growth is expected, for example, in the Upper Bavarian districts of Pfaffenhofen an der Ilm, Ebersberg and Dachau, and in Lower Bavaria, in addition to the district and city of Landshut, also in Dingolfing-Landau and Kelheim. In Middle Franconia, the city of Fürth and the districts of Erlangen-Höchstadt and Neustadt an der Aisch-Bad Windsheim are on the rise.
Lower Franconia (minus 0.5 percent) and Upper Franconia (minus 2.0 percent) as a whole are forecast to have a declining population. For the second time in a row, the leader among the administrative districts is Swabia: the population there is expected to increase by 7.9 percent by 2042; Incidentally, the strongest increase was in the Unterallgäu district with an increase of 11.9 percent. Swabia is followed in second place by Upper Bavaria with an increase of 6.6 percent, then Lower Bavaria (plus 6.2 percent). Upper Palatinate (plus 3.4 percent) and Middle Franconia (plus 2.8 percent) also recorded increases.
For its forecast, the state office not only evaluated information about the current population, birth patterns and mortality, but also the structure of immigration and emigration – internationally, within Germany, as well as the internal migration flows between all 96 independent cities and districts in the Free State. The forecast data is not set in stone – recently the corona pandemic or the influx of people from Ukraine had triggered at least minor shifts.