The war in Ukraine is currently dominating Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s agenda. And that also applies, at least indirectly, to her trip to the Western Balkan states of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and Serbia, which begins this Thursday with talks in Sarajevo, the city where the scars from the Balkan wars of the 1990s can still be seen . The Russian attack on Ukraine is linked to the fear that there could soon be no peace in the Balkans again – and that the Kremlin is using its influence in Serbia and other countries to act against the interests of the European Union and the West.
The attack on Ukraine ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin shows that Europe must be prepared to make strategic investments in its long-term security, Baerbock said before leaving Berlin. This also applies to relations with the countries of the Western Balkans. “Today’s peace in the Western Balkans may not be perfect – but it is precious,” said the Greens politician. Many of these countries have disappointed and neglected Europe in recent years. “Players like Russia, who have no interest in a European future and do not shy away from stirring up unresolved conflicts, are pushing their way into this open flank.”
This is especially true in Bosnia, where Serb leader Milorad Dodik has been working for months on a secession from the Republic of Srpska. In the parliament of the Bosnian republic, the party he leads has pushed through a law intended to separate the judiciary from the institutions of the Bosnian state. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell spoke of an “unacceptable violation of the constitutional and legal order”. Dodik also seeks to separate the army, police, intelligence and tax administration from state-level institutions.
Dodik’s proximity to Russia
His policy contradicts the 1995 Dayton Peace Treaty, which ended the bloody war in Bosnia that lasted more than three years and granted the Croatian-Bosnian Federation and the Serb Republic autonomy rights. The country’s worst crisis since 1995 is therefore often talked about. Dodik is supported by nationalist politicians in Serbia – and by Moscow. Ever since Putin invaded Ukraine, Dodik has been demonstrating his close ties to the Kremlin. As a member of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s three-member presidium, he is opposed to the country joining the EU sanctions.
In a phone call with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the two reaffirmed their mutual support. The international peacekeeping mission Eufor, which Moscow would like to abolish just as much as the post of High Representative held by the German Christian Schmidt, has already increased its troops in Bosnia from 500 to 1,100 soldiers as a precautionary measure. The EU is now considering putting Dodik on the sanctions list.
In Sarajevo, Baerbock wants to talk to her colleague Bisera Turković about the situation, after which a meeting with Schmidt is planned. He recently warned of a split in Bosnia and brought up EU sanctions against Dodik. He also suggested making financial aid for the country subject to conditions.
Baerbock also wants to meet with representatives of the victims’ organization “Mothers of Srebrenica”. During the Srebrenica genocide in the Bosnian war in 1995, Serbian troops overran the UN protection zone there and then murdered more than 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys. The massacre is considered the worst war crime in Europe since the end of World War II.
New conflict looms in Kosovo
On Thursday, Baerbock wanted to continue to Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, to consult with President Vjosa Osmani and Prime Minister Albin Kurti. In addition, talks were planned with representatives of the NATO KFOR mission and with soldiers from the Bundeswehr deployment contingent. According to the Bundestag mandate for the mission, up to 400 German task forces can be sent to Kosovo. Around 70 Bundeswehr soldiers are currently deployed there.
To this day, Russia has refused to recognize the former Serbian province of Kosovo under international law. At times, under US President Donald Trump, an exchange of territory between Kosovo and Serbia was in the air – here too, changing borders along ethnic criteria cannot be ruled out, which could lead to new conflicts.
In Bosnia and with regard to Kosovo, the EU is suspicious of the work of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. In November, Putin had promised him gas supplies at a preferential price. The tabloid media in Serbia, mostly loyal to Vučić, spread Moscow’s war propaganda largely unfiltered. At the beginning of March, the EU Parliament criticized the fact that Belgrade did not support the EU sanctions against Moscow and warned of possible negative consequences for the planned EU membership. Vučić faces elections scheduled for early April.
No easy conversation partners. However, at the Munich Security Conference, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz advocated accelerating the process for the Western Balkan countries’ EU accession, which had been announced in 2004, and which also includes North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania. “It is not enough to name the prospect of enlargement for this region as a strategic goal. We must actively promote it,” he said. Baerbock’s journey is intended to serve this purpose.
Moldova fears destabilization
“People in the region will measure us by whether we follow our words with deeds,” said Baerbock. Germany has a fundamental interest in a politically stable and economically prosperous Western Balkans, whose states are oriented towards Europe. “We will work for this, in the upcoming political talks, as well as with strategic investments – especially in renewable energies,” she announced. Also present is Manuel Sarrazin, who holds the newly created position of Special Envoy for the Western Balkans.
On Saturday the minister will travel to the Republic of Moldova, the poorest country in Europe and a neighbor of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of refugees have already sought safety there before the war. Baerbock will find out there how Germany can help with their care. The government in Chisinau also fears that Moldova itself could be destabilized. Russia has stationed troops in the breakaway Transnistria region, which borders Ukraine, and issued Russian passports there. The neutral country could quickly be drawn into the conflict.