analysis
Foreign Minister Baerbock visited Israel with hope but without expectations. It was the fifth time since the Hamas attack. And it was a reality check – without illusions.
Talk, face to face, not just on the phone. Develop a feeling for hidden messages on the other side – often with the knowledge in advance that there will not be a big, presentable result. This is also the case in the middle of this week, when the German Foreign Minister traveled to Israel for the fifth time since the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7th.
Annalena Baerbock wants to present her political positions again before the security conference in Munich so that she can then hold talks with her Arab and European counterparts with fresh impressions. Given the many current crises, the conference is more important than ever for many informal discussions on the sidelines.
With every trip, clearer words
So now there have been five trips with lots of conversations – with political leaders, but also with people from the public. Travel that has been a difficult balancing act since the beginning of the war in Gaza. It is important to Baerbock to address the suffering on both sides.
The more she travels to Israel, the more desperate the Palestinians’ situation becomes, the clearer her words become. It still initially emphasizes Israel’s right and duty to defend its people, but at the same time it shows its limits more and more unmistakably.
One day before Baerbock’s trip, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Al Malki was a guest in Berlin. She says that Israel has the right to self-defense against Hamas, but not the right to expel the civilian population.
She repeated the same thing a day later in Jerusalem, after her meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Security for the Palestinians means: they must not be driven out of Gaza, the territory of Gaza must not be reduced, not even through buffer zones on the edges of the Gaza Strip.”
Are the messages reaching Netanyahu?
She reports that she also found clear words for Netanyahu. It was her first direct conversation with him since October 7th and it took significantly longer than planned. But the result? Difficult to judge.
Baerbock assures that there was intensive discussion when she appeared alone in front of the press – there was no joint press conference with either Netanyahu or the Israeli Foreign Minister, whom she had previously met. She pushed for more border crossings to be opened so that more humanitarian aid, especially medical supplies, could reach the people.
But did this trigger anything in the Israeli prime minister? Will he change his policies? Will it allow more trucks carrying aid supplies to go to Gaza? He had promised the Americans that he would let 500 trucks through per day. We are still a long way from that. So does he just listen when foreign ministers like Tony Blinken or Annalena Baerbock call on him and then carry on as before, as if they were never there?
No public criticism
While Baerbock is in Israel, talks are underway in Cairo with the aim of freeing more hostages. According to the Foreign Minister, there is a Qatari-Egyptian proposal on the table as to how a ceasefire and the release of hostages could be linked. “This is an opportunity; we must seize it together.”
But Netanyahu probably doesn’t see the opportunity in the proposal that Baerbock sees. In any case, as she speaks, it is becoming known that Netanyahu does not want to send a delegation to Cairo to negotiate. Baerbock reacts to this in an interview with the Israeli television station Channel 12. She understood that they wanted to continue the talks, but Hamas had made utopian demands. She does not publicly criticize Netanyahu.
The relatives of hostages that Baerbock meets on the second day of their trip are completely different. At the beginning of the week they were full of hope. Now they are very disappointed that no one is being sent to Cairo. That is a big mistake.
“The government is using the hostages to continue this war,” said Yamir Yaakov, whose brother was kidnapped by Hamas. They also said that to the minister, for whom they are full of praise. Germany exerts its influence quietly, that is best.
Reach the population with TV interviews
Baerbock’s visits are hardly noticed by the Israeli public. This should change with the interview with the largest private TV station in Israel, which will be broadcast on the main evening news. She wants to reach the Israeli population with her arguments, probably in the hope of increasing the pressure on the government, whose support is steadily dwindling.
In Tel Aviv there is a huge poster with Netanyahu’s likeness that says in huge letters: “You are the leader, you are in charge.” Many in Israel want a change of government.
And yet Netanyahu remains the most important interlocutor for the German Foreign Minister. Only with him can the international community find a solution to the “humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza” that it speaks of. And so foreign ministers and heads of government from many Western countries take turns urgently warning the prime minister against a ground offensive in Rafah.
Security conference use for exchange
At the security conference in Munich, Baerbock will meet with important players in the Middle East. At the moment, the priority is to achieve the release of the hostages, combined with a ceasefire in Gaza in order to be able to provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.
There is great concern that even the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt could be at risk if the Israeli army launches a ground offensive in Rafah. Then more and more refugees could try to cross the border into Egypt.
At the same time, there has long been a struggle for a perspective for the entire region. For Baerbock, this can only consist of a two-state solution, even if she knows that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects it. “The only security for both of us to live in peace means that everyone has their state and that is why for us this is an essential part of a common peace plan, which will be difficult. But in my view there is no other alternative for this path to peace. “
Hope in every movement, no matter how small
There is no alternative for the German Foreign Minister to her travel diplomacy. Even without major breakthroughs. She’s enough of a realist not to even expect it. Every little movement, you hear from those around you, can help.
She never tires of emphasizing that it is not an easy path. But in order to increase the credibility of a German mediation role, especially with the Arab states, it needs movement on the Israeli side. Otherwise, Arab states, also under pressure from their populations in view of the suffering of the Palestinians, could quickly no longer see any point in engaging in talks with Israel.