One of the key political experiences in the life of Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is the night of May 1, 2004. At that time, she celebrated her accession with Germany’s first Green Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, and his Polish colleague Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz on the Oder Bridge, which connects Frankfurt with Słubice Poland to the European Union.
It was the last major expansion; ten states were admitted at that time. Bulgaria and Romania followed at the beginning of 2007, and Croatia became a member in 2013. Now, during Baerbock’s term as Foreign Minister, at least the foundations will be laid for the next expansions, after which the EU could grow from 27 to up to 37 members.
The EU heads of state and government had already assured the six Western Balkan states of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia in Thessaloniki in 2003 that their future lay in the European Union. At the summit in December in Brussels, a good 20 years later, they will probably have to decide on Ukraine and Moldova’s applications to start accession talks.
In addition, Georgia submitted a formal application for EU membership a few days after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Negotiations with Turkey that began in 2005, during which 16 of the 35 chapters were opened, came to a standstill in 2016 and have not been resumed since. But they were not formally canceled either.
Without reform of the EU, there can be no enlargement
This expansion is not about altruism, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz put it in his speech to the European Parliament in May. It’s about the geopolitical conclusion from the Russian war of aggression and about securing lasting peace in Europe. This is now widely agreed in Europe.
It is also clear that the European Union itself must reform its institutional structure if it wants to remain able to act and make decisions after enlargement, which would probably come gradually, and to gain international weight as an actor in a more multipolar world. Baerbock has invited foreign ministers from the EU and the membership aspirants to the Foreign Office this Thursday to advance this debate. She will also make concrete reform proposals in a keynote speech on European policy, as her house has announced.
Regarding the minister’s basic ideas, the Foreign Office says that she will suggest that people in the accession countries should gradually be able to enjoy the EU’s advantages, even before their country formally becomes a member of the Union. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) recently announced such an approach at a summit with the Western Balkan states in Tirana. The states should therefore have access to certain areas of the EU internal market.
Tie money from Brussels to the rule of law
Baerbock reportedly wants to open up more EU programs for the candidate countries, for example in research funding, roaming for cell phones or simplified visa procedures. She can also imagine that the countries will be gradually integrated into the EU structures and can take part in EU Councils of Ministers as observers – in those areas in which they have successfully concluded negotiation chapters with the EU Commission.
At the same time, as she repeatedly emphasizes, the Foreign Minister does not want to allow any compromises on democracy and the rule of law, nor does she want to allow any shortcuts in the accession process. Baerbock believes that anyone who wants to enjoy the advantages of the EU must consistently adhere to constitutional standards – which must also apply to those states that are already members. In their opinion, the disbursement of EU funds should be more dependent on this and the procedures within the EU for punishing violations of Article 7 of the EU Treaty should also be simplified.
Majority decisions instead of veto rights
The Green politician also sees a need for change in the finely balanced power structure of the European Union. According to the Foreign Office, enlargement should not result in the EU Commission and the European Parliament continuing to grow. Conversely, this means that Germany and other large member states must also be prepared to temporarily forego a position in the EU Commission. Larger areas of responsibility could also be managed jointly by several countries. This is intended to alleviate the fear of smaller states losing their right to have a say in the Commission.
At the same time, as Scholz had already called for in May, the Foreign Minister wants to ensure that the EU can make more decisions with a qualified majority, for example in tax law or foreign policy – even at the risk that Germany could then be outvoted more easily . Smaller states should be relieved of their concerns through a mechanism through which they can demand further negotiations if they fear being outvoted on important interests.
A voice for the EU in foreign policy
However, it is also clear that Hungary, under the increasingly authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, will not simply give up its veto power, especially not if the sanction mechanisms for violations of the rule of law are tightened. In Poland, the likely change of government should make things easier – but a Prime Minister Donald Tusk must also represent in Warsaw what he is negotiating in Brussels.
In foreign policy, the EU has just demonstrated how far apart its positions sometimes are: France, Spain and Belgium voted in the UN General Assembly for a Gaza resolution that calls for a ceasefire from Israel. Croatia, Austria, the Czech Republic and Hungary voted against it. Germany, Italy and most other EU states abstained. Then von der Leyen, Council President Charles Michel and Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell also took contradictory positions.
In the long term, Baerbock believes that clearer responsibilities are necessary so that Europe speaks with one voice in the world – and is represented by one person. It remains to be seen whether Baerbock herself will still be Foreign Minister. According to their idea, the reforms should be decided and implemented during the next term of the European Parliament, which will be re-elected for five years in June 2024.