US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken came up with a handy comparison when he and Federal Secretary of State Annalena Baerbock stood in front of the microphones in the Benjamin Franklin Room on the eighth floor of the State Department in Washington. Regarding the Russian troop deployment on the border with Ukraine, he says Moscow’s narrative of a threat from Kiev is reminiscent of a fox who claims that the chicken coop is such a threat that he has no choice but to invade it.
But it is not just about Ukraine, but about fundamental principles of the international order: for example, that borders must not be changed through the use of force or that no one has the right to dictate their foreign policy to states or with whom they enter into alliances. These principles are essential to maintain peace and security. That is why one inviolably supports the sovereignty and territorial inviolability of Ukraine.
Moscow’s activities are observed with great concern, says Baerbock, who affirms the common stance of the Europeans and the USA: Further Russian aggression against Ukraine is “given a clear price tag”. A renewed violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty by Russia would have “grave consequences”. The only way out of this crisis is succeeding, “and we are very, very agreed on dialogue” and a political solution, she says.
“When it comes to Europe, nothing will happen without Europe”
In the first place she mentions Germany’s efforts, together with France, to get the Normandy format going again. Thereby Berlin and Paris mediate between Russia and Ukraine and try a complete implementation of the so-called Minsk Agreement to move forward a peace plan for Donbass and the Luhansk region in southeastern Ukraine. There are also increased efforts in NATO and the OSCE to get the common message “in the best possible and coordinated manner to men and women, especially to President Vladimir Putin”.
She is glad that the joint escalation efforts have now meant that Russia is ready to resume the thread of the conversation. The close coordination on the next steps is a reason for their day trip to the USA, such sensitive topics cannot be discussed on the phone or in video conferences. At the same time, it would raise questions about Germany’s appreciation for transatlantic relations if she did not first travel to Washington before visiting her colleague Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, which is likely to be necessary in the current situation.
How serious Russia is with the talks remains to be seen. “We are at the beginning of a process to test whether diplomacy and de-escalation can bear fruit,” says Blinken. This Thursday, a high-ranking Franco-German delegation with the security advisors of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and President Emmanuel Macron is traveling to Moscow to meet with Russian colleagues. A special virtual meeting of the NATO foreign ministers is scheduled for Friday. On Monday, bilateral talks between Russia and the US will follow in Geneva on strategic stability – a format that US President Joe Biden and Putin agreed on at their summit there in the summer.
“When it comes to Europe, nothing will happen without Europe,” said Blinken – this is not just about consultation, but about participation, he said, referring to the concerns that ultimately the decisive questions will be settled in bilateral negotiations with the Kremlin could become. And so the NATO-Russia Council will meet again on Wednesday for the first time since 2019, and another meeting is planned for Thursday at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
The main thing is dialogue
The success mark for the diplomacy marathon of the coming days is relatively low: The aim is to restart a dialogue with Russia in a wide variety of formats. So if you could agree on the next rounds, that would be something. Nobody expects quick agreements or breakthroughs. The demands of Russia are too drastic, the positions are too far apart, and the Western states and their allies in Ukraine, for example, will want to express their criticism of Russian behavior.
In order to make any progress, however, de-escalation is necessary and not “a pistol aimed at Ukraine’s head”. A dialogue with slow steps towards more transparency would at least reduce the risk of further escalation towards military conflict. However, Russia has demanded quick results. The danger that Putin is ultimately only looking for a pretext to justify an invasion can also be seen in the Foreign Office. However, there is no better alternative than trying conversations in a variety of formats.
Unpleasant questions about Nord Stream 2
In Washington, of course, Baerbock was not spared the question of the controversial Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. Blinken confirms once again the negative attitude of the US government, but also points out that “no gas is flowing through this pipeline yet”. Contrary to what some thought, it is a means of exerting pressure on the Europeans against Russia – and not the other way around. When asked about statements by Federal Chancellor Scholz that it was a purely private-sector project and reports that he was aiming for a “conditional restart” with Russia, Baerbock now has to provide interpretation assistance in Washington.
They have “described the same thing in different words”, explains Baerbock, referring to the coalition agreement, in which it is stated that “European energy law applies to energy policy projects”. That is why the Federal Network Agency suspended the certification process. In addition, the joint declaration of the governments in Berlin and Washington from the summer continues to apply that aggressive actions by Russia would have far-reaching consequences – also for Nord Stream 2. The new beginning only meant that one had to react to the situation and now all formats of talks with Russia must use that have just recently not been used for a long time. Washington will have heard that with interest.