Bad polls: The insecure Union

The Union starts tomorrow with Merkel, Laschet and Söder in the hot election campaign phase. But in the polls it is anything but good. Shortly before the general election, the nervousness grows.

He does not comment on any good or bad surveys, said Armin Laschet at an election day in Oldenburg on Wednesday. At the moment there are hardly any good ones anyway. The Union is only slightly ahead on the Sunday issue and with 23 percent far behind its own expectations. The candidate for chancellor also loses personal popularity, which was never particularly good anyway.

CSU boss Markus Söder commented on the bad poll numbers: “If you see the current polls, they fluctuate. But they all have the same tendency – downwards.” And it is not the first time that Söder has put his finger in the wound: A government without the Union is possible – a traffic light, even a red-green-red coalition.

That unsettles the sister parties. And it raises the question again: is Laschet the right one? Little is heard from his supporters. Not by the Söder fans in public either, but behind the scenes. When asked about it, Söder flirted: “It’s not that easy for me either.” Because on the one hand, he was constantly being asked – also from his own party – to show his personal card even more strongly. On the other hand, this would then be criticized as inappropriate by the media.

Points as a haven of stability

Ursula Münch, political scientist and director of the Academy for Civic Education in Tutzing, also observes the downward trend that the surveys are currently showing, making the Union nervous. Neither the flood disaster nor the situation in Afghanistan will help the Union out of this low point. But swap the candidate for chancellor five weeks before the election? “In my opinion, that would be an expression of nervousness. Otherwise, I don’t take it seriously and, above all, I wouldn’t advise anyone. Because that would actually be an indictment.”

Then the Union could not even score more as a haven of stability. And political scientist Münch currently sees this as the only way out: Shortly before the election, mobilize a lot of undecided people, especially when – as is currently the case – everything is still open. What many in the Union are demanding – Laschet would have to take a position on the content, switch to attack – Ursula Münch does not see coming: “Of course, this is extremely difficult, especially because the Union candidate for Chancellor is someone who is not at all natural like to polarize. “

Söder pledges support

That would have been more convenient for Söder. He appears statesmanlike to the outside world, but the nuances are clear: “With the survey figures and the values ​​behind them, this is one of the toughest challenges for the Union, the toughest since 1998. Definitely.”

In 1998 Helmut Kohl was voted out of office, with black and yellow, red and green ruled from then on under Gerhard Schröder. Only a few years later did the Union come back to power with the Merkel era. The question arises as to which scenario the CSU boss paints on the wall and whether he wants to play the savior after a possible defeat. Söder asserts that he supports wherever possible, that nothing can be said: Laschet has been extensively advertised in Bavaria. The question is, does it help Laschet and does it help the Union?