Azerbaijani forces attack Armenian-inhabited part of Nagorno-Karabakh. The aim is to “restore constitutional order”. Videos show artillery attacks.
Azerbaijan has launched a new military operation to conquer the conflict region of Nagorno-Karabakh. It has “introduced local anti-terror measures to restore constitutional order” – reads the statement from the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry in Baku.
The military operation was intended to enforce the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the area as stipulated in the ceasefire after the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. Only military targets are fired. Armenian artillery had previously attacked its own positions and injured several soldiers.
Nagorno-Karabakh rejects allegations
The leadership of the conflict region around the capital Stepanakert rejected the allegations. The Defense Ministry of the internationally unrecognized Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh said its defense forces were abiding by the ceasefire. The allegation that the ceasefire was broken and two Azerbaijani soldiers were injured was “lied and does not correspond to the facts,” it said in a statement.
Armenia’s Defense Ministry said the country had no military personnel or equipment in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Residents of Stepanakert posted videos showing sirens and artillery sounds coming from the mountains outside the city. A video posted by the Azerbaijani side showed how an anti-aircraft system was destroyed in front of Stepanakert.
Nagorno-Karabakh isolated
In recent weeks there has been a massive build-up of troops by Azerbaijani forces around Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border with Armenia, as well as transport flights from military airports in the allied states of Israel and Turkey to Azerbaijan.
The development was comparable to the situation before the second war over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict area three years ago. At that time, Azerbaijan recaptured areas that the Armenians had controlled since a first war in the 1990s.
Since December 2022, Azerbaijan has increasingly restricted traffic through the Lachin Corridor, the only land connection between the Armenian-inhabited part of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, so that aid supplies have recently stopped reaching the area. Yesterday, after long negotiations, two trucks from the International Red Cross reached Nagorno-Karabakh through the Lachin corridor and two trucks from the Azerbaijani side.
According to a 2020 peace agreement, Russian peacekeepers with an official strength of 2,000 men were supposed to protect the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, but they have since largely let Azerbaijani troops do as they please. The Russian Foreign Ministry said it was establishing contact between the parties to the conflict.
International mediation by the EU, the USA and Russia should lead to a peace agreement by the end of the year. In addition, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed a mediation meeting at the weekend. Discussions should take place during the UN General Assembly currently taking place in New York.
Although compromises have emerged between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent weeks, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh remains intensified. Azerbaijan is practically demanding the assimilation of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. Armenia at least demands rights and security for the people there, even if it recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Guerrilla war threatens
The Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have “self-defense forces” with several thousand soldiers and a limited number of military equipment and ammunition. All men in Nagorno-Karabakh undergo military training at the age of 18, and there are weapons in many households. The Azerbaijani armed forces may succeed in destroying the Armenian military positions. But the fighters could retreat into the forests and start a guerrilla war from there, warn experts such as Richard Giragosian and Tom de Waal.
Of Nagorno-Karabakh’s 120,000 residents, an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 were on site. If the Azerbaijani attacks continue, there is a risk of a massive wave of refugees like in 2020, if not the extensive expulsion of the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh. This could lead to domestic political unrest in Armenia.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry wrote in a press release: “Humanitarian corridors and reception centers have been established on the road to Lachin and in other directions to ensure the evacuation of the population from the danger zone.”