aviation
Flying more climate-friendly by 2050 – it will be difficult
According to a study, making air traffic more climate-friendly is extremely difficult. photo
© Marijan Murat/dpa
Aviation is a major contributor to the climate crisis. According to a report, using technical solutions to enable climate-friendly or even climate-neutral flying could take a very long time.
No single technology can be decisive for a more climate-friendly one Aviation – this emerges from a report by the Office for Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag (TAB). No currently possible strategy is sufficient in itself to achieve the emissions targets, according to an analysis in which innovative drives for more climate-friendly air traffic were examined.
A mix of technologies is necessary. According to the TAB, these include electric drives, more sustainable fuels from waste or biomass, green hydrogen (H2), the optimization of fuels, more sustainable aircraft design and a reduction in emissions through increases in efficiency.
According to the TAB, quick solutions cannot be expected either in terms of drives or new fuels. “The aviation sector is characterized by comparatively long development and approval periods for new technologies.” The development and approval of new aircraft designs or engines is estimated to take up to 15 years, and market penetration then takes another up to 30 years.
Another problem is that due to the close global network of air traffic, a uniform energy supply must be guaranteed at all airports, the TAB report continues. Parallel infrastructure would involve additional costs. “For this reason too, a switch to a fundamentally different energy supply is not to be expected in the medium term.”
According to the TAB, the optimization of flight operations plays an important role. Aerodynamic improvements such as particularly smooth surfaces or curved wing tips reduced fuel consumption. Flight planning at airline and air traffic management level also has potential to reduce emissions. This involves, for example, improved airspace management to avoid detours, efficient flight procedures such as slower descents, climate-oriented optimization of speed and flight profiles, and increased aircraft utilization. Targeted taxation is a measure to accelerate such developments.
Despite the climate crisis, the number of air trips is increasing worldwide. This has consequences: “By 2050, there could be 60 percent more CO2 emissions than in 2019,” as the TAB report states. In Germany, the number of passengers transported rose from around 136 million in 2004 to around 227 million in 2019.
Stefan Gössling from Linnaeus University in Kalmar (Sweden) sees the “most important approach to reducing emissions” as barely discussed in the TAB report: reducing demand for flights. This involves, for example, the taxation of long-haul flights in particular, which cause the largest emissions contributions. “About 25 percent of the longest-haul flights account for 70 percent of emissions.”
The climate impact of air traffic is considerable. International aviation is estimated to account for around 3.5 to 5 percent of man-made warming, according to the TAB report.