With attacks on the headquarters and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, Ukraine has severely affected the Russian army. Hopes of a reconquest are growing among Ukrainians.
Much swearing and obvious fear accompany the short video, which purports to show a Ukrainian attack in mid-September on the port of Sevastopol on Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. “Fire in Sevastopol,” the complaining observer can hardly believe in view of the explosions.
Almost ten years after the annexation by Russia, many Russians and pro-Russian people live in Crimea. Journalist Andryi Shshekun has no illusions, even if people close to Ukraine – including representatives of the Crimean Tatars – are eagerly waiting for it to be reconquered. Many would work with the Ukrainian side to achieve this – for example in transmitting sensitive information about the situation on site.
Hatched: territories occupied by Russia
“The main thing is that the fridge is full”
Shschekun is the editor-in-chief of the newspaper Krimska Svetlytsa, which specializes in Crimea. Before the Russian occupation in 2014, the majority of the population there was pretty indifferent, he says in his apartment in a suburb of Kiev. “As the saying goes: the main thing is that the fridge is full.” Only those who betrayed Ukraine now have reason to panic, the 50-year-old continues. “People are starting to distrust the Russian army. It’s supposed to be so powerful – but now Sevastopol has been hit. I think this is the beginning of the end.”
According to Russian information, it hit two Russian warships that were being repaired at the shipyard that night in mid-September. The special forces of the Ukrainian military announced this week on the Telegram messenger service that 62 people were killed.
Ukraine is rowing back
At the same time they announced the death of Viktor Sokolov. The commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was one of 34 senior Russian military officers who were killed in the attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters last Friday.
Russia has not confirmed this so far, but has published a video in which Sokolow can be seen. It is unclear when the recordings came from. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian military rowed back again. Available sources said Sokolov was among the dead, but the information now needs to be clarified. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told CNN: “If he (Sokolov) is dead, it is good news for everyone that we continue to retake our territories.”
Months of preparation for the attack
Schschekun suspects that a meeting apparently took place at the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Sevastopol is a myth among Russians because it is considered the “city of Russian glory” and impregnable. According to Russian propaganda, Sevastopol is also the “glory of the Russian armed forces.” “The Ukrainian army’s attack on Sevastopol has destroyed all myths about the alleged strength and power of the Russian army and Sevastopol – their ‘pearl of the Black Sea Fleet,’ as they call it,” says Shshekun.
Kiev destroyed the heart of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, probably with “Storm Shadow” missiles supplied by Great Britain. Schschekun is convinced that it was a sensational attack that must have been meticulously prepared for several months.
The Ukrainian army carried out a series of special operations for at least six months before the strike against the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet was successful. Among other things, the Boyko drilling rigs in the Black Sea were captured and a Russian anti-aircraft system in Tarchankut was destroyed. “The Ukrainian army didn’t just do it like that. It was the hard work of professionals,” said Shschekun.
Putin is clinging to Crimea
Kiev often only confirms such attacks indirectly, if at all. But for military observers in the country one thing is certain: the drones and missiles against the Russian air defense as well as attacks on bridges and military facilities such as airports, ammunition depots or vehicle fleets are intended to interrupt the occupiers’ supply and supply routes. The Russian army in Crimea is to be put in distress.
Before the Russian invasion in February 2022, only four percent believed that retaking Crimea was even possible. That has changed. According to surveys conducted by Active Group in Ukrainian-controlled areas at the beginning of March, almost 55 percent of those surveyed could imagine that Crimea could be retaken in the near future – although almost all of them considered heavy fighting to be unavoidable.
Kiev history teacher Nadiya Chervinska said only Russian President Vladimir Putin could decide on a possible troop withdrawal. For Putin, Crimea is almost holy territory. If it were evacuated, his entire imperial structure would simply collapse. So he will stick to it until the end – because that means his political and physical survival.
Tortured by Russia
For the journalist and intensive Crime observer Schschekun, a military reconquest of occupied Crimea has also become more likely. The 50-year-old is active in the so-called “National Council of Ukrainians of Crimea”, whose goal is a democratic Ukrainian Crimea.
He himself had to leave his home town of Bakhchysarai near Sevastopol in 2014 because he had resisted the annexation by Russia. After Russian captivity and torture – including with electric shocks – he warned his compatriots years ago about a major Russian invasion for which Ukraine should prepare.
The torture remains fresh in his mind to this day: “When they gave me my things after the interrogation, I asked for a cross because they had taken the crosses from us. One of them hissed in my ear: ‘We won’t just give you the cross like that, but can exchange it for your ear,” says Schschekun. The journalist says he remained silent about it. Then one of his fellow prisoners had his ear cut off.