interview
Middle East expert Guido Steinberg sees Israel behind the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. The country is waging a shadow war against Iran – and risks a two-front war.
tagesschau.de: Iran blames Israel for the attack on an embassy building in Damascus. Do you share this assumption?
Guido Steinberg: Yes. There have been similar attacks on Iranian targets in Syria in recent months, including on a top Revolutionary Guard intelligence officer in Damascus last January. In my view, there is no doubt that the Israelis are responsible.
To person
Guido Steinberg is an Islamic scholar and employee of the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin. He primarily researches the countries of the Near and Middle East. From 2002 to 2005 he was a terrorism officer in the Federal Chancellery.
The role of the Al-Quds Brigades
tagesschau.de: Several high-ranking officials from the so-called Quds Force were killed in the attack. What significance do they have in Iran and outside?
Steinberg: The Quds Brigades are a special unit of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s ideological army, which exists parallel to the conventional army. The Quds Brigades’ mission is to identify, build, finance, train and lead allied groups or state actors in the immediate vicinity of Iran, i.e. in the Arab Middle East and Afghanistan. They are the ones who have been responsible for Iran’s expansion in recent years, particularly through collaboration with actors such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq, but also the Syrian army.
The brigades are, in a sense, the spearhead of Iranian expansion in Syria. They have been present there since 2011 to support the Assad regime, and even in a more offensive role since 2015. They should build a new front against Israel there.
“This war is taking on a new quality”
tagesschau.de: If we assume that Israel is responsible for the attack, why did it happen now?
Steinberg: The Israelis began airstrikes in 2017 targeting Iranian and Iranian-allied targets in Syria – the Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah and Shiite militias. There have been well over 1,000 airstrikes since then, so this latest attack is in line with them. What is new is that the Israelis are now specifically attacking leaders of the Al-Kuds Brigades in Syria – and then also in official Iranian facilities in the capital Damascus.
We have been talking about a shadow war between the Israelis and the Iranians since 2017. This war is now becoming more and more open and is taking on a new quality.
tagesschau.de: There have been fears for months that there could be a conflagration in the Middle East. Has this danger now become even more tangible?
Steinberg: From my point of view, yes. We see that two of the main players, the US and Iran, do not want this major confrontation. Whether this applies to Israel must at least be questioned. The attacks in Damascus in particular show that the Israeli government is at least prepared to risk escalation. With such attacks they provoke the Iranians to retaliate. The danger of a major conflict, at least between Israel and Iran and therefore also between Israel and Hezbollah, has grown significantly.
“Iran is prepared to wait longer”
tagesschau.de: Iran has announced a response – but has also done so in other attacks in the past without carrying out the threat. Do you think it is possible that Israel is speculating on this?
Steinberg: In fact, the Iranians have not yet responded to the latest attacks. We know from the past that Iran and Hezbollah are willing to wait longer to find a suitable opportunity and target. My impression is that the Israelis are also testing the point at which Iran is no longer prepared to forego rapid counter-reactions.
This must also be seen against the background of Iranian domestic politics. There are voices, especially in the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran, who have been calling for tougher countermeasures for years. We will only find out in the near future whether the calculation will work out that the Iranians will not retaliate decisively as they have in previous years.
“A Two-front war is a risk in any case”
tagesschau.de: Can Israel afford a two-front war at the moment, both military and political?
Steinberg: A two-front war is always a risk. But there are voices in Israeli politics that are calling for exactly this – a kind of preemptive war against Hezbollah and with it greater action against Iran. I think the attacks are in this context. They will not have been ordered without the consent of the Prime Minister and the War Cabinet.
That’s why it seems to me that Israel is accepting the risk of such a two-front war. At least parts of the government in Israel are of the opinion that the country can afford this militarily and politically.
tagesschau.de: Wouldn’t that be too much for the Israeli army after almost half a year of war in the Gaza Strip?
Steinberg: Militarily, Israel would be able to wage such a two-front war. You just have to realize what that would mean. It would mean massive airstrikes on southern Lebanon, with which Israel would attempt to eliminate large parts of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal in a very short period of time. Israel can definitely do that. I think a major ground offensive in southern Lebanon is currently more difficult to imagine.
“Risk of escalation comes from the Israeli government”
tagesschau.de: And how high do you estimate the political risk that Israel is taking with this?
Steinberg: Politically, the Israeli government will likely argue that Israel is already isolated and that now may be the only time it still has support. Simply because it is obvious that Hezbollah started the current confrontation. In my view, however, there is a risk that in the event of a major escalation during the election campaign, the USA may not be as resolutely on Israel’s side as it would otherwise be. Politically, Israel is taking a big risk.
tagesschau.de: For its part, hasn’t Hezbollah also tried to provoke Israel in recent months and test its willingness to react?
Steinberg: Hezbollah decided to also shell Israeli targets after the October 7 Hamas attacks, and not in response to an Israeli offensive that came later. Nevertheless, Hezbollah is clearly not interested in a major escalation. The major risk of escalation at the moment comes from the Israeli government. She is the only actor who is discussing very openly whether this is not the moment for a major confrontation with Hezbollah and Iran.
The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de