analysis
The heating season is coming to an end. German energy supplies were also secured in the second winter without Russian pipeline gas. Although there were no nuclear power plants, the electricity mix became more climate-friendly.
Winter is considered the most difficult season for electricity supply in Germany and Europe. Because, on the one hand, photovoltaics only provide little electricity in the dark months, while on the other hand, the demand for electricity increases due to the heating energy required. After the end of the meteorological winter, we can now take stock – and it is positive.
Bruno Burger, responsible for the Energy Charts database of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), evaluated the figures for the three winter months. And he sums up: “We got through the winter really well. There was no electricity shortage. The shutdown of the nuclear power plants did not have a negative impact on the power supply in the winter.”
Not only was the minimum goal of ensuring security of supply achieved. Last winter, German electricity generation was also more climate-friendly than the previous year – even though the largely CO2-free nuclear power plants were no longer available for the first time.
Almost a third less coal
German electricity suppliers did not have to resort to coal-fired power plants more frequently, as parts of the public had expected. On the contrary: 29 percent less coal was burned than in the previous year.
This development had already become apparent in the previous months. In 2023, despite the nuclear phase-out, Germany burned as little coal in power plants as it last did in 1959. Meanwhile, the consumption of natural gas for electricity generation remained constant.
New record for wind and solar
On the other hand, production of electricity from wind and solar rose by a third year-on-year during the winter months to a new record high. On the one hand, this was thanks to the expansion of wind power and photovoltaics, but on the other hand, it was also due to the favorable weather conditions. The no longer available electricity volumes from the nuclear power plants were more than made up for year-on-year.
As a result, around 60 percent of German electricity production came from renewable sources in the winter of 2023/24. “A very good value,” says expert Burger.
Electricity exported again in winter
Germany’s foreign trade balance for electricity was recently largely balanced. In 2023 as a whole, Germany imported a small proportion of its electricity (just under three percent) from neighboring countries. During the winter months, however, this was reversed and some electricity was exported. There has been a change here: In previous years, Germany supplied a lot of electricity to neighboring countries, especially in winter. This export surplus has gradually disappeared in recent years.
This is, among other things, a consequence of the nuclear power phase-out, but also of the rising CO2 price, which has made German coal-fired power plants less profitable. Instead, more environmentally friendly power plants abroad are now running more frequently. Both German electricity imports and exports came predominantly from renewable sources in 2023.
According to figures from the think tank Agora Energiewende, 49 percent of the electricity imported last year came from renewable energies and 24 percent from nuclear power. Of the electricity exported from Germany, 57 percent came from renewable sources.
Decrease in production and thrift
Meanwhile, electricity and gas consumption in Germany has fallen. In 2023, Germany consumed 3.9 percent less electricity than in the previous year, which corresponds to 21 terawatt hours. According to calculations by Agora Energiewende, just over half of this decline, namely 12.5 terawatt hours, can be attributed to declines in industrial production. These are primarily energy-intensive companies, for example from the chemical industry, which responded to increased energy prices.
In addition, successful savings measures in the economy and in households also had the effect of reducing electricity consumption, emphasizes Marco Wünsch, energy expert at Prognos AG. One could have expected that people would lose interest in saving energy after a year, he says, but: “That’s not the case. People keep saving, households keep saving, companies keep saving. Gas continues to be used in offices too Saved electricity. That’s good.”
Mild winter with lots of wind
In addition, we were lucky with the weather: the winter was once again extremely mild. In Germany, this doesn’t have a major impact on electricity consumption because only a small amount of heating is used with electricity. But even more so on gas consumption.
The reduced natural gas consumption, together with the federal government’s import policy and stockpiling, has ensured that the price of gas has fallen. Which also has a direct impact on the price of electricity through the production costs of natural gas power plants.
Energy prices back up Pre-crisis level
Electricity and gas now cost as much – or as little – on the stock exchange as they did in 2021 before the energy crisis. However, this development has often not yet reached household customers: those who remain loyal to their electricity provider and do not switch usually still pay higher prices than in 2021 because energy suppliers often only pass on price relief to existing customers with a delay. When it comes to new contracts, however, the pre-crisis level has also been reached again for households.
According to Burger from Fraunhofer ISE, it is no wonder that the electricity price on the stock exchange has recovered again, even though Germany shut down its last three nuclear power plants last year. The share of German nuclear power in electricity production was simply too small for that: “We are integrated into the European electricity market. And whether there are three nuclear power plants missing in Europe or not makes almost no difference to electricity prices.”
The whole of Europe is investing in photovoltaics
Other, stronger effects overshadowed the shutdown of Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland last year. In addition to the domestic developments described, there was also, among other things, an international boom in renewable electricity generation, according to Marco Wünsch from Prognos: “The expansion of photovoltaics was very strong in Europe.” Covering the entire area, from the classic sunny countries of Spain and Portugal to Poland, the Czech Republic and Holland and even Scandinavia.
Hydropower also supplied more electricity last winter than in the previous year, when southern Europe in particular suffered from drought. And: Production at French nuclear power plants has stabilized again after many reactors had to be shut down last year due to delayed maintenance work.
Pressure to act remains
Two winters after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the effect of the energy crisis has largely been overcome in terms of energy prices on the stock exchange. And the energy mix in the German power grid is now even cleaner than before the final nuclear phase-out and the Russian supply stop for pipeline gas.
The pressure to act remains high, because Germany’s electricity consumption is set to rise again. The fastest possible expansion of wind power, photovoltaics and electricity storage, entry into the hydrogen economy: all of this and more remains on the agenda.