Arms deliveries to Ukraine: How helmets became tanks

The list of German arms deliveries to Ukraine is now long. Behind this is the history of a political decision-making process in the course of which Germany often seemed hesitant.

The history of German arms deliveries to Ukraine must begin with their prehistory: as early as 2015 – after the annexation of Crimea – then US President Barack Obama urged the Federal Republic to do so. Without success. For years, two principles of German foreign policy were invoked in Berlin: the delivery of lethal weapons to crisis areas was taboo. And: Russia should under no circumstances be provoked.

Cast in reinforced concrete, Germany’s failed “change-through-trade” example was the NordStream-2 pipeline, which former Chancellor Angela Merkel never questioned and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz only questioned a few days before the start of the war.

A deep cut

You have to know all of this in order to gauge the depth of the turning point that followed on February 24, 2022: Shortly before that, when more than 100,000 Russian soldiers had already deployed on the Ukrainian border, Germany was still resisting all pressure from allies and delivered only a field hospital and ventilators – before Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht embarrassed herself at the end of January with the announcement that she was sending 5,000 helmets, which was sold as a generous gesture.

After the Russian invasion, parallel to Scholz’s speech about a turning point in the era, the weapon turnaround followed: Among other things, Germany supplied 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 surface-to-air missiles of the “Stinger” type, shortly afterwards STRELA missiles from GDR stocks and bazookas were added. As we know today: It is weapons that effectively helped Russia in the first weeks of the war to never gain sovereignty over the airspace. But there is another finding that is difficult to deny: Without the USA, Ukraine would no longer exist as a sovereign state.

From the turn of time to the turn of thought

What followed in March and April were mounting demands from home and abroad for the supply of “heavy weapons”. The chancellor initially appeared to have completely disappeared for weeks, then explained eloquently why this would pose an incalculable risk. Only to announce the delivery of the “Gepard” anti-aircraft tank – only a few days after he warned again in a “Spiegel” interview with reference to the nuclear power Russia.

It was a real change of course: At the beginning of May, the chancellor also agreed to the delivery of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 – the heaviest artillery piece that Germany has to offer. Then, without claiming to be exhaustive, came the IRIS-T air defense system in June, which Ukraine urgently needed in view of the Russian missile fire on urban and civilian targets. And in July, MARS II multiple rocket launchers.

The realization that Russia is indeed waging a war of annihilation against its neighbor with atrocities such as those in Bucha may have contributed to the “change of mind”. And that the arms deliveries were having an effect. In the summer, Ukraine managed to regain large areas in the south and east.

The Tank Debate

This is probably one of the reasons why the battle and infantry fighting vehicle debate, which traffic light politicians also find tormenting, began. Ukraine had already requested this in March. But in September the pressure on Germany, which had always relied on the sluggish “ring exchange” with NATO partners, increased massively: “Leopard 2” is urgently needed, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba almost begged his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock , when she visited Kiev in September.

In addition, the idea that Germany could form a kind of “Leopard” coalition together with partners in order to live up to its self-imposed claim to leadership while at the same time helping Ukraine – embedded in Europe – caused a sensation. But with the almost stoic reference to the fact that no NATO partner was supplying western main battle tanks and that Germany did not want to go it alone, more months passed.

By the beginning of January 2023, the chancellor had finally made the decision, long awaited by the traffic light coalition and allies, to send the Marder infantry fighting vehicle to Ukraine.

This, in fact, ushered in a new phase in German arms supplies. The step of then also supplying the “Leopard 2” main battle tank was not that big anymore. Nevertheless, it took another three weeks until this decision was made on January 25th.

From the Chancellery’s point of view, it was essential to have the USA on board and to convince them to supply battle tanks themselves. Scholz later emphasized that the close coordination with the partners had been successful, critics complained that Germany had alienated Eastern Europeans on the long way there, irritated the USA and ultimately only gave the impression of being driven, who only moves under extreme pressure from outside .

Criticism: No strategy recognizable

The “Leopard” tanks are to be delivered at the end of March. Until then, Ukraine is hoping for new commitments: Germany and the USA, however, reject the desired delivery of fighter jets. The most urgent problems currently include the supply of ammunition and missile defense, which Defense Minister Boris Pistorius constantly refers to.

Today, Germany is one of the most important supporters of Ukraine – and has come a long way mentally compared to the attitude before the war. Nevertheless, critics constantly accuse the chancellor in particular of not recognizing a German strategy. What Olaf Scholz does not have to be held against: ever having broken promises. He had prudently never publicly drawn red lines that he could not hold.