Status: 11/16/2021 5:58 p.m.
One year after the end of the war, the situation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalated again. The government in Yerevan accuses the neighbor of an attack on Armenian territory and asks Russia for help.
Despite diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the situation in the South Caucasus is escalating again. After military clashes had already occurred in the past few days, both sides are now using heavy weapons again.
The government in Yerevan accuses the warring neighbor of an offensive on Armenian territory. According to the Ministry of Defense, twelve Armenian soldiers were captured. Local media quoted politicians as saying that 15 soldiers had been killed. The armed forces have lost two positions, other reports said.
For its part, the government in Baku accused Armenia of having escalated tensions with provocations. The Defense Ministry commented that there was fear and panic among Armenian soldiers. The Armenians’ military equipment had been destroyed. The operational tactical advantage lies with the Azerbaijani armed forces.
Armistice without reconciliation
According to observers, it is the largest escalation since the end of the war a year ago. At that time, Azerbaijan recaptured extensive territory that Armenians had controlled since the 1990s.
After 44 days of war and well over 6,000 deaths, Russia reached a ceasefire on November 9, 2020 and stationed 2,000 soldiers in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict area. Among other things, the reopening of the transport routes in the region was agreed. However, several points of contention remained unresolved. It is true that representatives of both sides discussed the implementation through the mediation of Russia. A few days ago the foreign ministers of both countries met in Paris. But military clashes have repeatedly occurred over the past few months.
Conflict resolution by force?
The actual conflict area Nagorno-Karabakh on the territory of Azerbaijan is affected. The Armenians who remained after the war live there under the protection of Russian troops. In addition, there is the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is controversial in many areas.
Another conflict revolves around the Azerbaijani exclave Nakhichevan: According to the ceasefire agreement, it is to be connected to the mother country via a corridor on Armenian territory. Due to a lack of trust, the negotiations are not moving forward. While Azerbaijan is pushing, there is great fear in the affected area of Armenia.
The Armenians have seen this fear confirmed since May 12th. Since then, the government in Yerevan has accused the Azerbaijani armed forces of advancing into Armenian territory. It is feared that Azerbaijan could now use military force to create the agreed corridor.
A test for Russia?
The military expert Richard Giragosian in Yerevan does not go that far. He sees the current escalation as an attempt by Azerbaijan to improve its position for the negotiations on the border lines and to test the Russian leadership. This wants to increase its military presence on the border in order to de-escalate the situation.
However, Russia is not a neutral mediator. It has been Armenia’s military protective power since both sides signed a treaty on “Peace, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance” in 1997. In addition, Armenia is a member of the Russia-led “Collective Security Treaty Organization” (CSTO), which contains a mutual assistance clause similar to NATO.
Accordingly, the Armenian government asked Moscow for military support. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu expressed readiness to stop the clashes. Reports that soldiers at the Russian military base in the Armenian city of Gyumri have been put on alert are officially unconfirmed.
The CSTO states did not yet see the conditions for military support in Armenia. Most of them have good relations with Azerbaijan.
In Brussels, EU Council President Charles Michel called on both countries to “take a complete ceasefire”. In a tweet he wrote of a “tense situation in the region” and of the EU’s willingness to convey. However, like the US, the EU has not been able to achieve much in the South Caucasus in recent months.