Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Moscow and the West have clashed with economic sanctions. And if the measures imposed by the European Union and the United States harm the Russian economy, the reciprocal is likely to happen. Already, the prices of gas, wheat or oil are rising, and Russia is far from having activated all the levers at its disposal to penalize the European Union economically.
The purchasing power of the French, very dependent on the price of energy, therefore risks being affected by what the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire described on Tuesday as “economic war”. Only here, more than 2,200 kilometers separate Paris from Kiev. And if the fate of the Ukrainians is of great concern to the French for the moment, will they agree to suffer the economic repercussions of a conflict which only indirectly concerns them? For Elisabeth Tissier-Desbordes, professor of economics at ESCP and specialist in consumer behavior, the battle for awareness will be the key to this acceptance.
Are the French used to linking their consumption to geopolitical considerations?
On the contrary, the French have an extremely depoliticized consumption and rarely make the link between their purchase or the price of certain products and their position or moral conviction. French consumers, for example, have rarely mobilized for boycotts of products or Nations, unlike other countries such as Great Britain or the United States.
There is of course a whole discourse in France on political and responsible consumption, as well as a strong politicization in the country, but this is rarely translated into action. We can cite as an example McDonald’s, which has received some of the harshest criticism in France, while France remains the leading consumer in Europe of this fast food.
Therefore, how to make the French accept the very probable economic repercussions linked to the war in Ukraine?
One of the key battles is going to be awareness. This war is widely relayed on social networks with a lot of videos, which increases empathy and commitment around this conflict. But it also requires state involvement to keep the French concerned, united and ready to make economic sacrifices. A large part of the Americans were opposed to the entry of their country in the Second World War, the government had to do a lot of publicity and campaign to convince the population to participate in the war effort, but also to incite it to consume less to preserve raw materials for the conflict. Such a policy will have to be pursued by the French government if it wants to convince citizens of the merits of inflation increases for a conflict in which the country does not participate directly.
Emmanuel Macron’s recent speeches, speaking of the war back in Europe or of a situation that is here to stay, go in this direction. The acceptance of the French on the economic repercussions will depend on the legitimacy they give to this conflict, so it is important to involve them as soon as possible.
The president therefore spoke of “a situation that is here to stay”… Is there not a risk that time will play against the acceptance of the French?
At the moment, there is great solidarity because the war is new and recent. There is a state of amazement and empathy. Nothing says that the weariness and trivialization of the conflict will not quickly settle. The more time passes, the less the French will understand why they will have to suffer from purchasing power at half mast. Voices are already raised against the involvement of France. The duration of the conflict is a key question, it will be very hard to keep the French united forever.
The economic standoff against Russia will mainly be felt on the price of energy materials. Could this make the French all the less ready to make concessions?
The evolution of the price of raw materials is very sensitive, since they are essential expenses, but they penalize consumers differently. It is enough to see how the French react differently to increases in the price of gasoline according to their social category and their place of residence. A Parisian executive is less affected than a person who needs his car to go to work or do his shopping.
The advantage is that one of the main possible increases, that of the price of gas, comes as winter draws to a close. It will therefore be less significant inflation than if the conflict started in December.
With the confinements linked to the coronavirus pandemic, there has been a trend towards more responsible and local consumption. Could this play?
As with the example of McDonald’s, it was mostly about postures more than actions. I do not believe that this changes the purchasing responsibility of most French people in the long term. On the other hand, the coronavirus and the health crisis have taught us to deprive ourselves of a certain number of things. The population may have become more accustomed to lack and become more resilient.