ARD Germany trend: Union at record low – SPD pulls past

Around three weeks before the federal election, the Union falls to a record low in the DeutschlandTrend. The SPD passes by. The Greens are also falling further behind. The SPD benefits above all from the Scholz factor.

“In your opinion, who has the greatest competence when you compare Armin Laschet, Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock?” – that was one of the questions from infratest dimap for the ARD Germany trend this week.

The answer: A majority of Germans (55 percent) say that SPD candidate Olaf Scholz has the greatest competence. 14 percent of the Union candidate Armin Laschet say that, and seven percent of the Green candidate Annalena Baerbock.

In addition, the citizens were asked which of the three they see in front for certain character traits. In a direct comparison, Vice Chancellor Scholz is currently rated the most likable by 42 percent of Germans – that is 24 points more than in May 2021. 43 percent rate him as the most credible (+21). Immediately after the announcement of her candidacy for chancellor in May, Baerbock had convinced most of the respondents on both points. Scholz is currently attributed leadership strength even more clearly than in the spring (53 percent; +22).

Scholz clearly ahead on the direct election question

This lead when comparing profiles is also reflected in the direct election question. If you could vote for the Federal Chancellor directly in Germany, then 43 percent would currently choose the SPD candidate – that’s two points more than the GermanyTrend for the ARD morning magazine from August 20th.

Union Chancellor candidate Laschet and Green candidate Baerbock are not changing and are named by 16 percent and 12 percent of citizens in the direct election question. 29 percent still cannot or do not want to choose any of the three politicians.

Of the three people who apply for the Chancellery, Scholz gets the most tailwind from his own supporters: 87 percent of the SPD supporters favor their own candidate in the Chancellery. Among the Green supporters, six out of ten (61 percent) would vote for Baerbock – and in the ranks of the Union parties, just under half (47 percent) would vote for Laschet.

The SPD uses Scholz’s popularity

The popularity of the SPD candidate for chancellor directly benefits his party. A quarter of the SPD supporters (26 percent) indicate that the candidate is predominantly decisive for their current party preference. Another 48 percent justify their SPD preference with a combination of the person of the top candidate and convincing positions of the party.

The candidates from the other parties have not yet developed this traction. Their supporters state that they vote for them primarily because of the content of their party. It is also due to the weakness of the others that Scholz and his party are currently rated comparatively positively.

Union at record low on Sunday issue

If the general election were on Sunday, the Union would currently have 20 percent – seven points less compared to the previous month. That is the lowest value ever im ARD Germany trend for the Union was measured. The SPD would improve by seven points and come to 25 percent. Most recently, the SPD was one point ahead of the Union in February 2017 – not since then.

The AfD gains two points and comes to twelve percent; the FDP improves by one point and comes to 13 percent. The Left Party is stable at six percent; the Greens lose three points and come to 16 percent.

With these numbers, government alliances would only be possible with three parties. 35 percent of those surveyed currently prefer an SPD-led government; that’s five points more than im GermanyTrend for the ARD morning magazine from August 20th. 24 percent would like the Union to continue to lead the federal government (-6). One in eight (13 percent; -2) favors a coalition led by the Greens. 28 percent (+3) express no preference in this context.

SPD again in the lead in terms of social policy

If you ask generally which party the citizens are most likely to trust to solve the most important tasks of the country, then the SPD with 25 percent of the mentions and the CDU / CSU with 24 percent are roughly on par. This means that the SPD is rated better than in the previous general election (19 percent), while the Union is significantly worse than in 2017 (49 percent).

The social democrats are currently scoring particularly well on socio-political issues. When it comes to advocating adequate wages (43 percent; +13 in May), long-term security of old-age pensions (32 percent) and good family policies and childcare (31 percent; +9), the respondents are most likely to rely on the SPD.

In the field of economic policy, the Union continues to convince most of the eligible voters (34 percent; -3 in May) and in coping with the Corona crisis (27 percent; -3).

The Greens, on the other hand, are said to have the greatest competence in environmental and climate policy (43 percent; -15).

Greater confidence in the SPD

The Social Democrats are consistently rated better in various fields than they were in May: When it comes to the economy, 22 percent now trust the SPD most likely to solve the tasks (+9), when it comes to coping with the Corona crisis it is 20 percent (+11) and 19 percent (+7) for immigration policy.

The Union and the Greens, on the other hand, lag behind their last measured competence values. AfD and FDP score similarly in the competence assessment of the German citizens as in May. Every eighth electorate relies on the AfD in immigration policy (13 percent; +1) and on the FDP in economic policy (13 percent; -2). The Left Party is trusted primarily in family policy (8 percent; +/- 0) and wage issues (9 percent; -3).

The voters are concerned about environmental and climate protection

When it comes to the question of which is the most important and which is the second most important political problem in Germany, there is a clear trend. With 33 percent of the total mentions, the topic of environmental and climate protection comes in first.

22 percent name immigration and 18 percent call it Corona. 16 percent address questions of social injustice, 15 percent problems of old-age security.

For the 2017 federal election, the problem focus of German citizens was clearly on the issue of immigration, at 47 percent. On the other hand, environmental and climate protection was only of secondary importance four years ago with nine percent of the mentions.