Status: 08/19/2021 11:55 p.m.
When two argue, the third is happy: SPD candidate Scholz can expand his lead in the race for the Chancellery. Green candidate Baerbock and Union candidate Laschet lose. That shows the new one ARD Germany trend.
In the competition between the candidates for chancellor in the federal election in September, the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz has risen sharply in favor of the voters. In a direct election, instead of 35 percent, as at the beginning of August, 41 percent would now vote for the SPD politician – an increase of six percentage points. This is shown by the results of the ARD Germany trends for the ARD morning magazine.
On the other hand, it looks bad for the other two candidates for chancellor: Only 16 percent (-4) would prefer Armin Laschet in the Chancellery, after 20 percent at the beginning of the month. And for the Greens’ first candidate for Chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, only twelve percent of voters would vote, also four percentage points less than last. Three out of ten voters (31 percent; +2) can or still do not want to commit to any of the three politicians.
SPD increases in the Sunday issue
Of the three candidates, Vice Chancellor Scholz also enjoys by far the greatest support among their own supporters. 84 percent of the SPD supporters also favor their own top man in the Chancellery, while two thirds (68 percent) of the Green supporters would vote for Baerbock. Among the Union supporters, not even half (43 percent) would vote for Laschet in a direct election.
This is also reflected in the overall survey results of the parties. If there were to be a general election next Sunday, only 23 percent would vote for the Union – a loss of four points compared to the previous Sunday question. The Greens also lose two points and come to 17 percent. The SPD, on the other hand, can gain three points and would be almost on par with the Union with 21 percent. AfD, FDP and Left Party can each gain one point and come to eleven percent (AfD), 13 percent (FDP) and seven percent (Left).
Who should run the government?
In any case, a coalition government would be needed. But who should lead this? Here, too, the SPD can score. 30 percent of those questioned would like a government led by the SPD, an increase of six percentage points. Another 30 percent would like a Union-led cabinet after the next election. However, that is five points less than in the previous survey. A green-led cabinet is largely unchanged by 15 percent (-1). A quarter (25 percent; +/- 0) still expressed no preference.
As expected, the supporters of the Union (91 percent), SPD (88 percent) and Greens (84 percent) have large majorities in their own party. Half of the FDP supporters (50 percent) prefer a CDU / CSU-led alliance, while those on the left continue to rely more on an SPD (49 percent) than on a green-led coalition (27 percent). For six out of ten AfD supporters (59 percent), none of the three options is desirable. Comparatively the most attractive for AfD supporters is a cabinet under the leadership of the CDU / CSU, at 25 percent.
Split opinion on the Afghanistan mission
Attitudes towards the deployment and withdrawal of the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan were also asked. In retrospect, around half of German citizens do not fundamentally question the commitment of the German soldiers. 41 percent are of the opinion that the mission was correct, but should have been continued. In addition, there are ten percent who also describe the mission as correct, but also support the withdrawal from Afghanistan. For 40 percent, however, the mission was a mistake from the start.
Investigation facility
Population: Eligible voters in Germany
Collection method: Random-based telephone and online survey
Collection period: 17th to 18th August 2021
Number of cases: 1,219 respondents (795 telephone interviews and 424 online
Interviews)
Weighting: according to socio-demographic characteristics and recall behavior at choice
Fault tolerance: 2 * to 3 ** percentage points
Implementing institute: infratest dimap
* with a share value of 10 percent ** with a share value of 50 percent