ARD-DeutschlandTrend: Narrow majority against AfD ban proceedings

Many people have recently taken to the streets against right-wing extremism and the AfD. One in two people are vocal about banning proceedings against the party ARD GermanyTrend but critically – the AfD must be politically positioned.

Protests against right-wing extremism have been taking place in numerous cities across the country for more than three weeks, with more than a million people taking part so far. The cause of these large demonstrations has broad support among the population: 72 percent say they understand it – only 21 percent do not understand it.

This great support can be found among supporters of almost all parties: the majority of Green Party supporters (97 percent), SPD supporters (91 percent) and CDU/CSU supporters (83 percent) say they understand the issue of the demonstrations. Even among eligible voters who could basically imagine voting for the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a majority of 58 percent understand the concerns of the demonstrations.

The situation is the other way around for AfD supporters: only 18 percent say they understand the cause of the demonstrations, while a majority of 76 percent of AfD supporters have no understanding of it.

Biggest threat to democracy in Germany

The current ARD Germany trend asked the open question: What do you think is currently the greatest threat to democracy in Germany? In response, 39 percent of those surveyed mentioned right-wing extremism and right-wing populism – almost doubling compared to October 2022, when 20 percent answered this way. 18 percent of those surveyed (+7) consider incorrect politics or aloofness from politics to be the greatest threat to democracy. 5 percent of those surveyed (+2) mentioned the issue of migration; The issue of social inequality and poverty is currently only described as the greatest threat to democracy by 4 percent – in October 2022 it was still 11 percent.

Every second person is against an AfD ban

The AfD is partly classified as right-wing extremist, which is why there is increasing discussion about how to deal with the party politically. A minority of 37 percent considers the initiation of a ban procedure to be appropriate. A slim majority (51 percent) considers this to be inappropriate. For those who reject an AfD ban procedure, the ARD Germany trend asked about the reasons: 65 percent stated that they had to engage politically with the party and its voters. 16 percent say that the AfD is not unconstitutional, 14 percent justify their rejection with the lack of prospect of success of such a procedure.

Almost half of all respondents (48 percent) are in favor of cutting state party funding for the AfD, while 41 percent consider such a measure to be inappropriate. Almost two thirds (65 percent) generally want the other parties in the Bundestag to engage more closely with the AfD in terms of content; 22 percent think this is not appropriate.

Perception of the AfD has hardly changed

The current debate about the AfD has so far changed the perception of the party little. Furthermore, four out of ten Germans (43 percent; +1 compared to July 2023) think it is good that the AfD is more committed than other parties to a limited influx of foreigners and refugees.

Almost every second person (47 percent; -8 compared to July 2023) says that the AfD does not solve any problems, but at least calls a spade a spade. Overall, two thirds of those surveyed (66 percent, -6 compared to September 2023) consider the AfD to be right-wing extremist.

If you just look at the AfD supporters, you will notice that a good one in two AfD voters (51 percent) cannot currently imagine voting for another Bundestag party in the next few years – that is 12 points more than in September 2023. 43 Percent, on the other hand, can basically imagine voting for a different party. At the same time, 66 percent of AfD supporters agree with this statement: “I don’t care that the AfD is partly considered right-wing extremist, as long as it addresses the right issues.” That’s 14 points less than last fall, but still a two-thirds majority. Only a quarter (25 percent, +9) of AfD voters disagree with this statement.

FDP is currently behind BSW

If there were a federal election on Sunday, the SPD would get 16 percent (+2 compared to January 2024). The Union lost one percentage point compared to the previous month, but would still be the strongest force at 30 percent. The Greens would be at 14 percent (+1), the FDP would be at 4 percent (-1) and would therefore be below the mandate threshold.

The AfD would lose three percentage points, but would still be in second place with 19 percent. The Left would get 3 percent (-1) and would therefore be below the mandate threshold. With 5 percent, the newly founded BSW party would have a chance of entering parliament. All other parties currently account for 9 percent.

The reputation of the traffic light government is still at a low point: only 17 percent of those eligible to vote are currently satisfied with the work of the federal government (+-0). A clear majority of 81 percent (-1) are less or not at all satisfied.

Perceptions of current problems differ

In addition to the fundamental question of threats to democracy, Germans are currently also concerned about other things: six out of ten Germans eligible to vote (61 percent) are currently worried that climate change is destroying their livelihoods. Almost as many (60 percent) are worried that they will be ostracized if they speak their mind on certain topics. A good half of Germans (53 percent) are worried that they will not be able to maintain their standard of living, and almost as many are currently worried that too many foreign people are coming to Germany (52 percent). One in two people is worried that we will experience a loss of German culture and language.

It is interesting that the perception of the current problems varies greatly – depending on whether one has understanding for the demonstrations against right-wing extremism (72 percent) or not (21 percent). For those who have no understanding of the demonstrations against right-wing extremism, the greatest threat to democracy is not right-wing extremism (4 percent), but wrong politics and detachment from politics (35 percent).

The general perception of concern also differs: only 33 percent are worried that climate change will destroy the basis of life. However, a majority of 86 percent of those who do not understand the cause of the demonstrations are worried that they will be excluded if they express their opinion on certain issues, and 82 percent are also worried that we will lose the Germans Experience language and culture. Concern about too many foreign people coming to Germany (81 percent) and about not being able to maintain one’s standard of living (78 percent) is also more widespread among those who have no understanding of the demonstrations.