ARD area code polls: SPD also in front in MV and Berlin

A good week before the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, the SPD can look forward to high approval ratings in both federal states. In the ARD-Pre-election polls, the party is clearly in the lead.

The SPD has been in power in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania for 23 years – and a week before the election in the state, SPD Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig can have legitimate hopes that she can continue to govern. That shows the current one ARD– Pre-election survey by Infratest dimap.

If the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were to be re-elected next Sunday, the SPD would come to 40 percent and would be by far the strongest force in the Schwerin state parliament and would significantly improve its result from 2016 (30.6 percent). The AfD could currently expect 15 percent of the vote. In 2016, the party had become the second strongest force (20.8 percent). The co-ruling CDU could also count on 15 percent of the vote at this point in time, but would also miss its 2016 election result (19.0). The left would currently have ten percent (2016: 13.2 percent).

The Greens and FDP are currently not represented in the state parliament – and it is still open whether they can take the five percent hurdle. The Greens are currently at six percent and the FDP at five percent. The other parties would come together to nine percent. With such an election result, the ruling coalition of the SPD and CDU could continue to govern together. But red-green also currently has a majority – albeit a very narrow one.

Schwesig rated positively by the majority

As recently as May of this year, the SPD and CDU were much closer together. Since then, the SPD has been in the ARD-Surveys are clearly separated. The party certainly owes this tailwind to its top candidate and Prime Minister Schwesig, because none of the other top candidates in the state can match their fame and popularity. 69 percent of citizens are currently very satisfied or satisfied with the work of the SPD incumbent. This gives Schwesig a comparatively high value if you look at the values ​​of all Prime Ministers.

Accordingly, the desire to lead the next state government is relatively clear: 55 percent of those surveyed want the next state government to be led by the SPD, 17 percent are in favor of a CDU-led state government, and 13 percent want that the AfD should lead a future state government in the state. 15 percent did not respond to this question at the moment.

Berlin: SPD continues to distance itself from CDU

In the federal capital, not only will the Bundestag vote on September 26, but also the Berlin House of Representatives. One and a half weeks before the election in Berlin, the SPD is on the Sunday issue of the ARD– Pre-election poll currently at 24 percent and would be the strongest political force in the capital. This means that it could break away from the CDU a little more than in August and also improve its 2016 election result (21.6 percent). The CDU is losing something compared to August and currently has 16 percent in prospect – after 2016 (17.6 percent) this would be another historic low.

The Left Party, currently ruling with the SPD, could expect 13 percent of the vote, but not quite match the election result of 2016 (15.6 percent). The Greens, also co-ruling, would be 18 percent. This would make them the second strongest force and would do better than five years ago (2016: 15.2 percent). With ten percent, the AfD would also miss its election result from five years ago (2016: 14.2 percent). At seven percent, the FDP would be similar to 2016 (6.7 percent). The Animal Welfare Party would – if there was an election at the moment – come to three percent, all other parties taken together to nine percent. In the event of such an election result, the incumbent coalition made up of the SPD, the Left and the Greens could continue to run the business of government. An alliance of the SPD, CDU and FDP would be possible as well as an alliance of the SPD, CDU and the Greens. Two-party alliances, on the other hand, would not have a majority.

Top staff does not convince residents of the capital

Berliners are predominantly critical of the work of their own state government: only 36 percent of those surveyed are satisfied or very satisfied with the alliance of the SPD, Greens and Left, 58 percent, however, are less or not at all satisfied. And the top staff of the parties did not convince the capital city residents: SPD top candidate Franziska Giffey was rated the best. 42 percent are very satisfied or satisfied with their work – and thus a minority. Almost as many (40 percent) are less or not at all satisfied with it. But even those at Klaus Lederer (left), 32 percent are currently very satisfied or satisfied with his work – 31 percent are less or not at all satisfied with it. 21 percent are currently very satisfied or satisfied with the work of Sebastian Czaja from the FDP. Kai Wegner from the CDU has 20 percent approval of his work. Bettina Jarasch from the Greens brings it to 14 percent and Kristin Brinker from the AfD to five percent.

Movements possible until election day

These surveys are expressly not forecasts, but rather the political mood for the current week. The Sunday question measures current voting tendencies and not actual voting behavior. It determines an intermediate status in the opinion-forming process of the electorate, which is only completed on election Sunday. Conclusions about the election result are therefore only possible to a limited extent. Many voters commit themselves to an election at short notice. The last phase of the election campaign with the targeted addressing of indecisive and tactical voters is also of great importance.

The fact that movements are still possible until election day on September 26th has, among other things, to do with the number of people who can imagine changing their own party preference again. In Berlin this is currently 13 percent and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 15 percent. In both federal states, just under a fifth show no tendency towards a party or are still unsure whether they will take part in the election.