A report publishes alarming data on the warming of the Arctic in recent years. – KONRAD K./SIPA
The Arctic thermometer is going wild. According to an updated report from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP), the region around the Earth’s North Pole is warming three times faster than the planet. This is much more than what we thought and it is far from over according to this report made public Thursday on the occasion of a ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council which brings together the countries this week in Reykjavik. residents of the region.
Emblematic of the region, the ice floe appears to be an announced victim but every fraction of a degree counts: the chances of it disappearing completely in summer – before reforming in winter – are ten times higher if the temperature on Earth increases by 2 ° C rather than 1.5 ° C, the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. “The Arctic is truly a hotspot for global warming,” says Jason Box, a glaciologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.
The unexplained tipping point occurred in 2004
In less than half a century, from 1971 to 2019, the annual average temperature climbed 3.1 ° C while the planet warmed at the same time by 1 ° C. A disconcerting pace and alarming data. In its previous updated report published in 2019, AMAP indicated that the warming in the Arctic was “more than double the world average”.
According to the researchers, a tipping point occurred in 2004 with a still largely unexplained jump in the thermometer above the Arctic Circle, after which warming continued there at a rate 30% greater than before.
The future of the Arctic dependent on greenhouse gases
The region is now seeing “more and longer winter heat episodes,” explains Jason Box: weather systems, sometimes scorching, which engulf the region, especially during the period of ice formation, between October and may. The “summer”, from June to September, is added to the heat released by the oceans, increasingly freed from sea ice and the insulation they provide. It is not over since, according to the projections cited by the report, the average temperatures of the Arctic should by the end of the century rise between 3.3 ° C and 10 ° C above their average on the period 1985-2014, the exact figure depending on the volume of future greenhouse gas emissions.
The warming of these regions has immediate consequences on the ecosystems: modification of the habitat, food habits and interactions of the fauna – including the iconic polar bear -, migration of certain species… From Siberia to Sweden by the way Through Alaska, uncontrollable wildfires have become a familiar issue. In addition to the problems they pose for the protection of people and property, “the smoke they produce also contains carbon dioxide and carbon black which both contribute to climate change,” notes the American researcher Michael Young.
4 million people impacted
Dramatic consequences also for the 4 million people who live in these latitudes, particularly the indigenous populations. “Hunters in northwest Greenland say the period during which it is possible to travel with dog sleds has fallen from five to three months,” said Sarah Trainor, director of the Center for Assessment and Policy of the climate of Alaska.
“Hunters and fishermen in Canada and Russia are reporting leaner seals, less healthy wildlife, and more worms in fish and marine mammals,” she adds. A warmer Arctic is also a wetter Arctic. Rain replaces snow, contributing in particular to the formation of ice sheets that prevent deer from feeding on lichen. The effects of warming in the region are being felt far beyond.
Dangerous rise in sea level
The melting of hundreds of billions of tonnes of ice each year in Greenland, for example, results in rising sea levels that endanger populations thousands of kilometers away. Of course, the retreat of the sea ice also opens up economic opportunities, to the chagrin of environmental defenders: new fishing areas, new commercial maritime routes, easier access to potential oil, gas and mineral resources, etc.
“However”, insists Sarah Trainor, “the potential for expansion of these industries is constrained by efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and achieve the objectives set under the Paris Agreement”.