analysis
In Bavaria, the AfD and Free Voters have benefited significantly more than the CSU from the generally bad mood and dissatisfaction with the traffic lights. Why is that? Surveys from infratest dimap provide insights.
The state elections in Bavaria and Hesse are strongly influenced by two things that have little or nothing to do with state politics: the generally bad mood in Germany and the great dissatisfaction with the federal government. Only a quarter of Bavarians are satisfied with the work of the traffic lights in Berlin – and those who are satisfied almost exclusively come from the SPD and Green camp.
In Bavaria, 58 percent still think the economic situation is good. This is a good value compared to other regions in Germany. But it is 31 percentage points less than before the 2018 election.
And almost two thirds of those eligible to vote in Bavaria are worried that climate change is destroying livelihoods, that crime is increasing or that immigration could overwhelm Germany. The war in Ukraine and the fear of not being able to maintain living standards also scare many people. In the survey, the infratest dimap carried out in the days before the election, 78 percent say that the conditions in Germany give cause for concern. Scientists speak of a polycrisis in a situation in which several major crises occur at the same time – and this has consequences for the voting decision.
State election as a “reminder” for the traffic lights
When asked which issue plays the biggest role in their voting decision, many Bavarians name those that are decided more at the federal level than at the state level – climate, immigration or economic development. And 54 percent of Bavarians say the state elections are a good opportunity to give the governing parties in Berlin a lesson.
No tailwind for CSU from Berlin
Classically, the largest opposition party should actually benefit particularly from such a “reminder”. In the federal government it is the Union – i.e. CDU and CSU. But the CSU doesn’t benefit from this at all in Bavaria. As always since the mid-1950s, it has clearly become the strongest force this time. But Markus Söder once again achieved a dramatically poor result by CSU standards.
One of the reasons for this may be found in Berlin. Because only 42 percent of Bavarians are of the opinion that a Union-led federal government would do a better job than the traffic lights – tailwind looks different. The other can be found in Bavaria itself: There are two other parties here that benefit significantly more than the CSU from the “reminder” for the traffic lights: the AfD and the Free Voters (FW), which are extremely strong in Bavaria.
Less arguing – that’s what matters
The poor CSU result is unlikely to be due to Prime Minister Markus Söder himself. 61 percent think he is a good prime minister – twelve percentage points more than in 2018. And at least 55 percent are satisfied with his work overall. Compared to prime ministers in other federal states, this is not a top value. But given the generally bad mood in Germany, top approval ratings of around 70 percent, like those achieved by SPD Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania or the Green Party Winfried Kretschmann in Baden-Württemberg in 2021, are not to be expected.
Unlike the 2018 election, this time Söder probably won’t have to be accused of setting the wrong tone in the election campaign. Five years ago, he apparently tried to win over voters on the right-wing fringe with slogans like “asylum tourism.” The tone was also sometimes rough towards the sister party CDU. That didn’t go down well with many Bavarians.
This time around, Söder has once again dished out a lot during appearances in beer tents – especially towards the Greens. But overall he appeared more like a statesman in the election campaign. In 2018, more than half of those eligible to vote complained that the CSU sought arguments too often. This time it was 17 percentage points less. And Söder also made significant gains when it came to questions about whether he was a strong leader and likeable – so his change in strategy was obviously well received.
From the CSU to the Free Voters
The fact that the CSU is far from the glory of earlier days has a lot to do with shifts within the bourgeois camp – and thus with the old and almost certainly also new coalition partner Free Voters. The lion’s share of the increase in votes for them comes from the CSU.
The CSU is still considered to have the highest competence ratings in almost all political areas – especially in those that were particularly important for the election decision, such as the economy. But while the CSU has lost significantly here compared to 2018, the Free Voters are gaining.
In Bavaria, the Free Voters (FW) are an established political force – especially in the more rural regions, of which there are a lot in Germany’s largest federal state in terms of area. Once again, they got the highest share of votes in small communities, where they made significant gains again. In big cities, however, they can hardly score points.
personalization instead of focusing on topics
The Free Voters have been firmly anchored at the local level for decades, where issues are more important than people. They were always seen as a catch-all for conservative voters who were at odds with the CSU. This is still the case today: 46 percent of new FW voters say that the CSU is no longer conservative enough for them.
But party leader Hubert Aiwanger has also succeeded in making heads in the party more important – or rather, one in particular: his. He is the undisputed star of the Free Voters. And he has successfully managed to position himself – to put it bluntly – as “someone from the country” who shows it to “those in Munich” – even if Aiwanger actually belongs to “those in Munich” through his position as Minister of Economics and Deputy Prime Minister ” counts.
The leaflet affair apparently did not harm Aiwanger
The leaflet affair and his “bring back democracy” speech at the demonstration in Erding, where, as a democratically elected politician, he indirectly questioned the democratic legitimacy of decisions made by the federal government and the Bundestag, obviously did not harm him – as the good election result shows .
Only 41 percent of Bavarians believe that he did not write the anti-Semitic leaflet that was found in his bag when he was at school. And at least 29 percent say that they can no longer distinguish him and his party from the AfD.
Even among FW voters, only 71 percent believe Aiwanger’s account of the leaflet affair – which, conversely, means that a significant number are voting against the Free Voters, even though they assume that Aiwanger himself wrote the unspeakable text as a young person wrote and also did not tell the truth when clarifying the affair.
On the other hand, Aiwanger achieved similarly good approval ratings as Prime Minister Söder: 50 percent are satisfied with his work. And something else is interesting when comparing the two: 56 percent believe that Prime Minister Söder is more concerned with himself than with the matter, while “only” 37 percent say the same for his deputy and Economics Minister Aiwanger.
Cross with the FW instead of the AfD
Apparently Aiwanger and his party also managed to prevent a number of voters from voting for the AfD, which is partly right-wing. 39 percent of FW supporters say that without the Free Voters they would vote for the AfD in Bavaria.
Nevertheless, the AfD is the second election winner in Bavaria. And it is the party that benefits particularly strongly from the dissatisfied – a phenomenon that has been evident in almost all elections for years. But in the perception of many voters, the AfD is increasingly changing from a pure protest party to one that is actually increasingly seen as having the ability to solve problems – albeit at a comparatively low level.
In Bavaria, the AfD is extremely divided and is running with Katrin Ebner-Steiner and Martin Böhm – a top duo that is considered very far right even by AfD standards. More than two thirds of Bavarians also consider the AfD in the Free State to be a right-wing extremist party.
What’s striking is that of those who actually vote for the AfD, just five percent see it that way – so hardly anyone. A different attitude prevails here: 85 percent of AfD supporters say in the infratest dimapsurvey, they don’t care that the AfD is partly considered right-wing extremist, as long as it addresses the right issues.
Even many Green voters want different asylum policies
For many AfD supporters, this is primarily the issue of migration. And it is precisely this issue that is currently turning out to be one of the Greens’ two big problems. A liberal migration and refugee policy is essentially part of their DNA. For a long time this met with approval from many people, but the mood here in Germany has changed significantly in the last few months.
In Bavaria, only 39 percent say that they like the Greens’ commitment to a humane refugee policy – 20 percentage points less than in 2018. And 83 percent of those eligible to vote answered the question of whether there should be a different asylum and refugee policy, which means fewer people come to us with yes. Probably particularly frightening for the Green Party leadership: even among Green Party supporters, almost 50 percent say this.
The Greens’ second problem area is climate policy. As mentioned above, climate change is of great concern to the vast majority of people. But when it comes to the question of who citizens trust to have the best environmental and climate protection policy, the “climate protection party” Greens loses out massively: in 2018, two thirds of Bavarians saw them as having the most competence in this area, in 2023 this will only be a third.
Minus for the Greens in terms of climate competence – plus for AfD, FW and CSU
This certainly doesn’t just have to do with disappointed Green Party supporters, for whom the Greens are now making too many compromises on climate protection in the traffic lights. And not just with technical errors that the Greens made with the so-called heating law. The fact that in this field, in addition to the AfD – which is the home of all those who still deny man-made climate change – two parties, the CSU and the Free Voters, are gaining in competence and are not particularly notable for their committed climate protection policy, can probably only be explained by the fact that Enthusiasm for climate protection decreases as soon as measures are threatened that actually have an impact in everyday life.
In addition, the CSU in particular relied heavily on portraying the Greens as a “banned party” during the election campaign – apparently with success. 62 percent of those eligible to vote agree that the Greens want to tell people how they should live – 20 percentage points more than in 2018.
Big cities more green than red
The fact that the Greens in Bavaria still lose comparatively little is apparently thanks to a stable core electorate. On average, they are young, well educated and live in big cities like Munich, Nuremberg or Augsburg. And she doesn’t share the “ban party” assessment at all. But the Greens are apparently finding it difficult to get votes from other camps in the current situation.
And the SPD? Bavaria has long been an extremely difficult place for them. In rural areas there is often not even a local association; in the past it only had strongholds in the urban centers of the large metropolitan areas of Munich and Nuremberg. But the Greens in particular are scoring points today, bucking the trend and even making slight gains in large cities. The SPD, on the other hand, continued to lose votes there in the current election.
Of all the traffic light parties, the FDP was punished the harshest: it failed in Bavaria at the five percent hurdle.