Analysis of the Iran-Israel conflict: One less red line

Even if there is no big bang for the time being, both Iran and Israel will continue to try to weaken their opponents. There is now less inhibition in the conflict.

The extent of the alleged Israeli attack really was and how much damage was actually caused – it is quite possible that the public will never be officially informed. What is crucial about the message in this case is that it reaches its addressee: the regime in Tehran. And the sender of the message is probably clear to the recipient even without an official confession from Jerusalem.

From what is known so far about the overnight strike against Iran and perhaps targets in Iraq and Syria, it was a limited operation. One that allows Iran not to have to respond. It is still too early for a final assessment, but at the moment it appears that the parties to the conflict may now be able to get out of the escalation spiral – for the time being.

The constant one Risk of escalation remains

Nothing will change in the initial situation. Iran will continue to work to expand its military influence in Israel’s neighborhood and to upgrade its allies, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah. This further supports the terror against Israel. Iran will also continue work on its own nuclear program.

Israel will continue to attempt to militarily disrupt Iran’s operations in the region, particularly in Lebanon and Syria. The Israeli airstrikes, which are neither officially confirmed nor denied – they will continue. The clandestine shadow war that both states have been waging for years will not end. The associated constant risk of escalation remains.

A dangerous one Misjudgment?

This latest round of exchanges began with the attack on a consulate building in Damascus attributed to Israel. The analysis of military experts: Israel’s army leadership misjudged itself and did not expect that Iran would respond so massively and directly fire on Israel for the first time.

In a situation in which two parties to the conflict are constantly fighting each other and at the same time want to avoid major escalation, misjudgments can occur again and again and have fatal consequences. It is important not to cross red lines.

Risk of wildfire upon resubmission

There is now one less such line in the exchange of blows between Israel and Iran: the direct attack on foreign territory. Iran already crossed this line last weekend.

For the moment, the danger of a regional war appears to have been averted, but the overall situation remains highly explosive. Fighting continues in Gaza and Israel and its Iranian ally Hezbollah remain on the brink of open war. The wildfire danger – which has been talked about so often in the past few days – is on the table again.