analysis
Four months of arguments about the heating law: the hard arguments have harmed all traffic light parties. But neither the Union nor the left benefit from it – in contrast to the AfD.
It’s a long and extremely rocky road that lies behind the Heating Act. And so the relief in large parts of the traffic light coalition should have been great when the so-called formulation aid reached Parliament on Friday morning. But the previous dispute destroyed a lot of trust – both among the coalition partners and in the population.
The SPD, Greens and FDP had already agreed on the project when they signed the coalition agreement in September 2021. So there would have been enough time for discussion and changes.
Through parliament in a hurry
In the end, however, the project is almost pushed through the Bundestag. Economics Minister Robert Habeck is the main driver. He desperately wants a vote before the start of the summer break at the end of next week so that the law can come into force on January 1st. Not only the chairman of the climate committee, Klaus Ernst, considers this to be a bad way of dealing with parliament. For example, the experts in the committees now only have the weekend so that they can comment on all the details on Monday.
A special session a week later could take much of the pressure off the proceedings. However, there is probably no discussion about this, also with a view to the vacation planning of the parliamentarians and further resentment in their own ranks. After all, some traffic light deputies felt they weren’t being taken seriously when, in the first reading, Parliament was only able to discuss “guard rails” written on two DIN A4 pages and a draft that had long since ceased to exist.
Then close your eyes and get through, seems to be the motto. And maybe the excitement will subside a little faster.
Habeck gets lost several times
On the way to a law capable of winning a majority, Habeck got lost several times. In the ARDTalk show “Anne Will” he admitted to timing errors. He ruled out technical errors in the law. In view of the changes that are now available, however, this is more likely to be classified as a protective claim.
So it is now clear that there must first be a municipal heating plan before the rules of the heating law take effect. This prevents bad investments. A goal that Habeck has been pursuing from the start – but only with a view to gas and oil heating and rising CO2 prices.
In addition, with a view to Scandinavian models, the minister relied primarily on heat pumps as a panacea. This led to heated discussions, including allegations of expropriation. Habeck ignored the associated concerns for too long, which harmed him and the Greens. There are now significantly more options for finding the right heating system for your home. And the controversial age limit of 80 years has also disappeared from the law.
Lindner plays about gang
In the dispute with Habeck, FDP leader Christian Lindner tries to play gangs and loses authority in the party. He had already stated his concerns in the cabinet in a memorandum and called for “necessary changes” in the parliamentary procedure. Nevertheless, he also gave the project his blessing. A short time later, the atmosphere at the federal party conference of the Liberals boils over. Lindner leaves the stages there to others. Above all, they tend to come from the second row and could see this as a blueprint for a rebellion in comparable situations.
Overall, however, the FDP could see itself as the winner in the heating dispute. Because the law is now, as demanded by the liberals, much more open to technology. In addition to gas heaters that can be converted to hydrogen, even oil heaters are now allowed under certain circumstances. In addition, the use of biomass is also possible in new buildings. But unlike football, politics is not a results sport. The role of the FDP as opposition in the government and the sometimes personal attacks on the person of Habeck have damaged the traffic light overall.
The lost trust is not only due to the Greens and Liberals. While both sides kept racing towards each other like two trains, the chancellor and the SPD seemed to withdraw to an observer role far away from the tracks for a long time. Polls confirmed that Olaf Scholz was not in the lead. Political observers even suspected political calculations behind it, in order to weaken the Greens and the previously very popular Habeck.
The opposition also lost out
It is striking that only one of the three opposition parties in the Bundestag was able to benefit from all the traffic light errors. While the AfD soars from one poll high to the next, the CDU and the left have even lost approval. The latter is still mainly concerned with itself and the impending split caused by the founding of a Wagenknecht party.
The Union, on the other hand, has come closer to the AfD in terms of rhetorical sharpness, but seems to be losing trust as a result. When the debate began in the spring, the CDU still had 31 percent of the Sunday question. It is currently two percentage points less.