analysis
When tax assessors meet, politicians usually hope for higher revenues. Because these ensure greater leeway in public budgets. However, the new numbers do not bring any relief.
Christian Lindner is satisfied: The income developed in line with expectations, which is good news. The new figures are actually a help for the finance minister and FDP chairman: if the tax estimators had presented significantly worse figures, his laboriously drawn up budget draft would now be a waste of time. Significantly better numbers would have quickly aroused desire – after all, there are many (expensive) wishes within and outside the traffic light coalition.
Lindner: There are no new ones Distribution scope
However, Lindner’s main message on this day is: There is no additional scope for distribution. And anyone who would like to see higher government spending in one place must say where they want to make savings elsewhere.
The current report from the tax estimation working group certainly contains additional billions: for the entire assessment period from 2023 to 2027, the tax experts for the federal, state and local governments as well as the EU expect an increase of 23 billion euros compared to the tax estimate from spring. In 2025, total government revenue is likely to exceed one trillion euros for the first time; the forecast is 1,017 billion euros.
Many desires
Only: The bubbling tax revenues continue to be offset by sharply rising government spending. There are also numerous ideas for spending money: Economics Minister Robert Habeck from the Greens would like subsidies for energy-intensive companies – keyword “industrial electricity price”. The municipalities are hoping for more money from the federal government to accommodate migrants. And it is very likely that the federal government will release a few billion at the meeting with the Prime Minister at the beginning of November.
Lindner himself admits that he is in favor of leaving the VAT for eating in restaurants at seven percent and not increasing it again to 19 percent at the turn of the year – as previously planned. But just extending this originally corona-related measure would cost public budgets 3.4 billion euros annually.
Setting priorities – just which ones?
Rearrange, prioritize, set priorities – this is also the consequence for budget politicians like Dennis Rohde. The SPD politician himself is not more specific. Green Party deputy Andreas Audretsch wants to reduce “climate-damaging subsidies” and put the money into investments. Gesine Lötzsch, on the other hand, is calling for further relief in view of the high energy prices. The left-wing politician criticizes that the traffic light does not keep its promise to return the income from CO2 pricing to citizens through energy money.
For Lindner, on the other hand, the focus is clear: everything must be done to stimulate the economy, which would then also increase tax revenue. Instead of an industrial electricity price, he can imagine a reduction in the electricity tax and the extension of the so-called peak compensation, with which energy-intensive companies are relieved of the electricity tax – a measure that is currently set to expire at the end of the year. Of course: Lindner himself does not make any concrete suggestions for counter-financing.
However, he still has a suggestion as to what contribution the states could make to support the construction industry: reducing the real estate transfer tax. Incidentally, income from this has recently collapsed – a sign of the weakness of the real estate market.
Because of the weaker economy, more debt is allowed
The Union parliamentary group’s budget spokesman, Christian Haase, is also promoting a “broad-based growth agenda”. At the same time, Haase criticizes the continuing rise in debt. In fact, Finance Minister Lindner will be allowed to take out additional loans next year without violating the debt brake of the Basic Law.
The “economic component” of the debt brake is responsible for this: the worse the economy is doing, the more debt the federal government can take on. This actually means a little more leeway for preparing the budget for the coming year – in contrast to the new tax estimate figures.