“The goal of the strikes has been achieved. All targets have been hit. The spokesperson for the Russian Defense Ministry welcomed the results of Russian strikes on its Ukrainian neighbor on Monday morning. From kyiv to Dnipro, via Kharkiv, Lviv, Zaporozhye and even Khmelnytskii, the country was targeted by 83 missiles and 12 suicide drones. 20 minutes asked Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS and author of the book Russia, a new chessboard (Eyrolles), to take stock of the conflict, which has now lasted seven and a half months.
Wash away the insult of the Crimean Bridge
For the former French ambassador to Moscow, this attack is “without a doubt” a response to the explosion which damaged the Crimean bridge on Saturday. An infrastructure that is both symbolic and strategic. “By territorial continuity, the Russians can supply the southern front from the east, but it takes much longer. Obviously, the Kerch bridge is of strategic importance. And then it is a symbol. » That of the annexation of Crimea to Russia. A rigging stamp representing the explosion was also installed in front of the Kyiv town hall this weekend.
“Vladimir Putin inaugurated it triumphantly (in 2018) to show the eternal nature of the attachment of Crimea, continues Jean de Gliniasty. Its popularity soared to almost 80% by then as Russians consider Crimea to be Russian. It was a very important element of Putin’s popularity at the time. Hence the firm and brutal response from the Kremlin.
“They targeted the cities with elements useful for the continuation of the war, by attacking the power stations or the centers of communication, and with elements of reprisals. They hadn’t bombed kyiv for a while (end of June). It is a message to tell the Ukrainian authorities: “Be careful, if you attack Russian territories, you risk reprisals, we have enough to impose them on you”. The decision to retaliate is eminently political. »
” You will see what you will see »
Beyond actions, the master of the Kremlin displayed his determination in words on Monday, at the opening of a meeting of his Security Council. He thus warned that “Russia’s responses will be severe if attempts at terrorist attacks continue” on its territory. A message that he also sent by dismissing the head of the military operation to replace him with Sergei Surovikin, whose nickname “butcher of Syria” is enough to present him.
“It is a message for Russian public opinion, that which is in favor of the continuation of the war and which is worried about the successive failures of the army, considers Jean de Gliniasty. It is a military type measure and a message for the nationalist right saying: “We don’t let go, you will see what you will see”. »
And now ?
While the counter-offensive led by Volodymyr Zelensky’s troops has borne fruit in the south and east of the country, the former ambassador believes “that the Ukrainians will still score a few points” on the ground. Before the positions stabilize “with the autumn period of the Rasputitsa”, which will complicate the movement of tanks and heavy equipment.
However, “seeing the attack on the Kerch bridge, and immediately the bombing of kyiv and other major cities, we are clearly in an escalation phase”, continues Jean de Gliniasty. Evoking “a direct threat” of sabotage, terrorist acts and military uprising, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has given a layer by announcing the deployment of troops.
“Lukashenko’s last barriers to Russian influence have fallen. The Belarusian army is a weak army, I don’t think that changes much, but it is obviously an additional element of threat for the Ukrainians in the east. This further removes any prospect of calm. “Not enough to foresee a clearing.