Ammunition supplies to Ukraine: “This war will be decided over resources”

The arms deliveries to Ukraine are not enough to turn the tide in Kiev’s favour, says military analyst Markus Reisner. Far more resources would have to be supplied for this. But the USA has not dared to do that so far.

tagesschau.de: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has called it a logistics race: the task now is to deliver ammunition and fuel to Ukraine before Moscow takes the initiative on the battlefield. Is he right?

Markus Reisner: I sign that 100 percent. This war will be decided over resources. For a long time nobody wanted to admit that. You thought you could do it in a few months. And now we find that many of the assumptions made by the West have not come true, or hardly come true.

For example, we have the tenth package of sanctions against the Russians, but their economy has not collapsed. We have also supplied weapons in incredible quantities. Despite this, the Russian army is now going on the offensive.

“Clear signal to expand capacities”

tagesschau.de: Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has announced new orders for ammunition. Does that still help in your opinion?

Reisner: Yes, of course. This is a very important decision because the defense industry has been pointing out for months that it needs firm commitments and orders in order to be able to start production again. Because their production facilities are still set to peacetime operations.

Some types of ammunition used to have delivery times of twelve months, now it is 28 months. And that’s why the announcement by the German defense minister is a clear signal to the armaments industry to act and expand their capacities. Of course, the industry must receive assurances for acceptance, i.e. financial guarantees.

Production can then progress relatively quickly, of course initially in manageable quantities. But one can assume that this will definitely make itself felt on the Ukrainian side in the coming weeks and months.

“War production in Europe still unthinkable”

tagesschau.de: What is the state of ammunition stocks in Ukraine’s partner countries at the moment?

Reisner: War production still seems unthinkable in Europe. But the problem is that all camps have been emptied. Recently it was said that the British army could only sustain a war of the kind being fought in Ukraine for five days. Some armed forces stock little more than 10,000 to 15,000 artillery shells. This is what was fired from the Ukrainian side on peak days in the summer of 2022. At that time, the Russian side fired up to 80,000 pieces a day.

Europe is no longer prepared for this. After the end of the Cold War, everything was reorganized. The supplies were designed, for example, for counterinsurgency in Afghanistan or Iraq.

There are few countries that still maintain really potent armaments production. The production of their own main battle tanks was now reserved for only a few countries: Germany managed an export hit with the “Leopard”, which is why it is at the center of the discussion. The British have their “Challenger”, the French have their “Leclerc”, the Italians have their “Ariete”.

The same applies to ammunition production: many states have outsourced it to other states. That is also the reason why so much pressure is now being exerted on Switzerland to release special types of ammunition for delivery. Because Switzerland sometimes has exactly what is so urgently needed and many other countries can no longer produce themselves.

“The main weapon of the Russians is artillery”

tagesschau.de: How do Ukraine’s ammunition stocks compare to those of Russia?

Reisner: The Ukrainians conducted a very successful maneuver war in the first few months. The Russians then forced a trench warfare on them in the summer, a war of attrition. As a result, Ukraine went on the offensive again – but now the Russians have turned the situation back into a war of attrition. And that is mainly decided by resources, i.e. ammunition. In the military there is the concept of ammunition starvation. And this hunger for ammunition is now happening massively in Ukraine.

The main weapon of the Russians in attrition warfare is artillery. It is estimated that the Russians had about 17 million artillery shells before the war started. They have used an unbelievable seven million of them so far. Their own production is estimated at around 3.4 million grenades per year. That means they still have about 13 to 14 million shells available for this year, which is enough to continue on this path.

The ammunition stocks of the Ukrainians were much smaller at the beginning of the war. It is often overlooked that there have also been repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian ammunition depots in the past. The own quantities of ammunition were therefore quickly used up, so that the West then tried to deliver.

He could do that relatively quickly. But the western stocks are now also empty, so that production here now has to be increased. Where you can already see this clearly is in the decisions of the USA. The USA has so far had a manageable annual production rate. However, the production of 155 millimeter ammunition is now to be increased from 15,000 to 90,000 pieces per month so that massive deliveries can be made.

“Russia has been preparing for years”

tagesschau.de: Can Russia keep up with the production of weapons and ammunition?

Reisner: Russia has been preparing for years. I give an example. After the first weeks of the war, the Russians deployed around 530 cruise missiles, as many as the Americans deployed in Iraq at the beginning of 2003. In the meantime, the Russians have shot down over 5,200 in repeated waves of attacks. There is also the use of drones loaded with explosives.

The Russian camps are emptying, but since they have done business with the Iranians, for example, and have built up a follow-up supply, they can always fly new attacks on the strategic and critical infrastructure. A few days ago we had the 13th wave of attacks and Ukraine is having a very hard time defending itself with the available anti-aircraft defenses.

The Russian attacks are also much cheaper than the Ukrainian defenses. A German Iris-T anti-aircraft missile cost 400,000 euros in the summer, now around 750,000 euros. An Iranian drone costs $20,000. It’s a huge financial mismatch.

That’s why it’s so important to make up your mind now to make the decisions to increase production and supply, even if they are costly, because otherwise Ukraine will just run out of time. Because that is exactly what Russia is banking on.

“In Bachmut, the tactics of the Russians seem to be working”

tagesschau.de: Has the Russian offensive you mentioned at the beginning already begun?

Reisner: This offensive has begun. But the Russians do it very cleverly. In many areas at the front, they are exerting enormous pressure. On the one hand by massive artillery fire, on the other hand by attacks in company to battalion strength.

So far, the Ukrainians have successfully defended themselves. But there are now big problems in Bakhmut, for example, and the Russian tactics seem to be working here.

Of course, the Russians are careful not to make any big announcements about this offensive, so as not to create pressure to succeed. Instead, they want to create facts. Or, if the offensive is not initially successful, simply continue their war of attrition.

Force symmetry as a goal

tagesschau.de: Can more arms shipments lead to a real shift in the balance of power in war?

Reisner: The problem is that both sides still believe they can achieve their goals. For the Russians, the goal is the destruction of Ukraine. And for Ukraine, it is survival as a state and retaking its occupied territories, including Crimea.

However, the arms deliveries from the West are only enough for the Ukrainians to be able to defend themselves, but not for the Ukrainians themselves to go on the offensive on a massive scale. The reason, of course, is concern about Russia’s nuclear armament.

That is, whenever a symmetrical situation turns into an asymmetrical one, that is, whenever Russia gains the upper hand, the Americans try to support Ukraine in such a way that it becomes a symmetrical situation again.

But they try not to go beyond that, fearing that Russia will then feel cornered and react irrationally. That is, one tries to wear down the Russians on the timeline as well.

To put it figuratively, the Russians are choking the Ukrainians and hoping they will run out of air. And the Americans are choking the Russians, hoping they’ll run out of breath before the Ukrainians. The tragedy is that the war cannot be ended quickly in this way.

If the West wants to end the war quickly, there are only two options. The first option is massive support for Ukraine. With all the resources necessary to be able to win a war of attrition of this kind – and well beyond what has been done up until now.

However, should the West consider this massive support of Ukraine to be too risky or not be able to do so due to a lack of resources or disagreement, an attempt must be made to enable Russia to exit the current course of the war in a face-saving manner. However, this would amount to a defeat for Ukraine – and the West.