American football is a simple game: 22 men chase a leather egg and in the end Tom Brady wins. On New Year’s Day, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playmaker once again proved he’s the best quarterback in history; and he proved that’s because he always finds a way to win somehow. It hadn’t looked good against the Carolina Panthers, but Brady threw two touchdown passes to Mike Evans in the final quarter, once running into the end zone himself. In the end it was 30:24 for Tampa Bay, who are already qualified for the playoffs one game before the end of the regular season.
The Buccaneers’ record: eight wins, eight losses, 8-8. That’s not great, above all it’s a reason not only to deal with the unwritten laws of this sport (Brady wins the Super Bowl), but also with those in the rules. Sports are usually meant to be simple games: people run, jump, throw, hit, fight, shoot, dance; and whoever wins the most in the end gets trophies, bowls, bowls, rings. But sport is also part of the entertainment industry, so the people in charge figured out that a knockout round could be an exciting thing – and here too you should basically think: whoever has the most wins or points gets in.
Well, it’s different in football, quite consciously, and that means, among other things, that fans in Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina and Washington play out numerous if-then scenarios before the New Year’s games.
The regulations in a nutshell: The US football league NFL is divided into the two conferences NFC and AFC, each of which is home to four regional divisions with four teams each. Each club plays 17 games: two each against the three other clubs in its own division (six games); one game each against four teams from another division of your own and the other conference, which rotates according to the principle of rotation (another eight games); one game each against a team from the two remaining divisions of your own conference (two games) – and one game against a team from the other (one game). Yes, sounds extremely complicated, but ensures that every franchise plays every three years against all clubs in its own conference and every four years against all NFL clubs.
Coach Bill Belichick already knew: It is important to be fit around the New Year
The playoffs reach the winners of the respective divisions and the three teams from the conference with the best balance sheets; So a total of 14 out of 32 teams. The most successful teams in the conferences (currently the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC) have a bye in the first round of the playoffs and home advantage through to the semifinals. The other three division winners each have home advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and now the first sporting oddity is already becoming apparent: Should the Eagles lose next weekend and the Dallas Cowboys win, Philadelphia will not slip from one to two in the seeding list; but in fifth place because the respective division winners are seeded. Instead of bye and home right afterwards, the Eagles would have to play away, now stood with the, yes, Buccaneers. If they lose again, in terms of win-loss balances, an 8:9 team would host a 13:4 team.
It is an excellent argument whether this system is fair when looking for the best in a discipline; but there are other oddities to be found too – and the geniuses who have turned these regulations into a science of success: For example, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick (currently seventh in the AFC with an 8-8 record), which, together with Brady, was so successful from 2000 to 2019. His mantra: The balance sheet doesn’t matter at all; the important thing is to win the division and be healthy and well-trained for the new year.
The Vikings are ahead of the Packers – but have just been beaten up by them
That’s how most clubs now see it, and it leads to less attention being paid to the balance sheet when assessing the true strength of the title contenders. Current example: The Minnesota Vikings have already qualified for the playoffs as winners of the NFC North with a record of 12:4 – which sounds great – which sounds great. Next weekend there will be a duel between the Packers and the Lions (both 8:8); if the Packers win, they’re definitely in. If the Lions win, Seattle will lose. That would be in the playoffs if you win and lose the Packers.
Interesting: Packers and Lions are currently rated stronger than the Vikings – who were literally beaten up by the Packers on Sunday (17:41) and three weeks ago deservedly lost 23:24 to the Lions. Means: It not only depends on who you play against – but also when you play against whom. A win at the beginning of the season is as meaningful for the form in the new year as a look into the crystal ball. Now, around the new year, it depends.
Brady finds pass receiver Evans just in time for the playoffs
This, of course, leads back to Brady. He was duly vilified for his resignation from retirement at the age of 45. For bad losses at the beginning (3:21 against the Panthers for example) and really bad performances. In the past two weeks, Brady has led his team to a comeback-overtime win against the Arizona Cardinals — and now he’s pulled off that feat with 432 yards, three touchdown passes and a run to the end zone. He also immediately sent a message to the possible playoff opponent: Because the Eagles lost the last two games without their first quarterback Jalen Hurts (shoulder). Hurts is likely to return next weekend; but it is questionable whether the timing will be right with the pass recipients and whether he will be able to run as bravely as he did at the beginning of the season given the injury.
“Wow, wow, wow, awesome stats,” Brady said of Hurts’ runs before the weekend, looking extremely bored. Now he said of the rhythm with wide receiver Evans: “He was free before, I just didn’t put the ball in his hands. Now I can do it.” Now that it matters. American football is a simple game: 22 men chase a leather egg and in the end Tom Brady wins.