The number of company bankruptcies will continue to rise in 2024 – this is what a study by the credit insurer Allianz Trade has shown. Most bankruptcies are likely to occur in the construction and hospitality industries.
According to a study, the number of bankruptcies in Germany will continue to increase this year – for the third time in a row. The experts at Allianz Trade have calculated an increase of 13 percent compared to the previous year. The Allianz subsidiary insures loans for companies.
According to the study, there could only be a slight easing in 2025. Experts then expect the number of bankruptcies to level off at around 20,000 annually.
Hospitality and construction particularly affected
The growing number of bankruptcies is due to the weak economy, disruptions in trade due to lack of deliveries and the general geopolitical situation. There are simply no orders because companies are holding back in view of the uncertainties worldwide.
The hospitality and construction industries are particularly affected in Germany. In the catering industry, industry associations estimate that one in eight businesses is now facing closure.
Because inflation is still high, consumers are holding back on spending. Innkeepers report a decline in the number of guests. In addition, the increased sales tax meant that prices had to be increased additionally, industry associations complain. At the beginning of the year, the federal government raised VAT again to 19 percent as planned. It was only temporarily reduced as part of the Corona aid.
“Costs are running away”
High interest rates and increased building material costs have recently caused orders in the construction industry to collapse. Investors are holding back on new buildings due to problems with financing. The market for commercial real estate is dormant given the economic situation. There has been a massive collapse in the construction of new apartments because, according to housing associations, future rents are simply too high.
Nothing is happening at the hardware store at the moment, says Florian Becker, from the Builders’ Protection Association on the show Economy update on tagesschau24. “Overall, we have an increase in insolvencies in the construction sector of 30 percent compared to the previous year,” said Becker. The developers who would have planned a property years ago are currently running out of costs for loans and building materials.
No “insolvency tsunami”
In an international comparison, however, Germany is still doing comparatively well when it comes to the increase in bankruptcies. Globally, experts expect the strongest acceleration to occur in the USA – followed by Spain and the Netherlands. The background is the structure of the economies in these countries. Their leading companies are particularly sensitive to financing problems – and they are more dependent on services for other companies.
Overall, the number of bankruptcies will probably be above the level during the corona pandemic. However, experts do not expect a “tsunami”. The situation is not comparable to the financial crisis of 2008/2009, when the number of bankruptcies shot up in all industrialized nations.
Bianca von der Au, HR, tagesschau, February 28, 2024 1:27 p.m