Alleged connection: Vaccinated persons do not die more often than unvaccinated persons

In England, the death rate of vaccinated people is said to be higher than that of the unvaccinated. The alleged evidence, however, is based on targeted data selection and the omission of key factors.

The curves actually speak a clear language: If you look at the course of the so-called age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for vaccinated and unvaccinated people in Great Britain this year, it looks as if this is significantly higher for the vaccinated than for the unvaccinated. That would mean that – based on 100,000 people in an age group – more people die of Covid-19 with a vaccination than without.

If you look at the graphs that are used to support this claim on social media, you can see that they are not based on the total population, but only on the age group of 10 to 59 year olds:

In the 60 to 69 year olds, the death rate of those vaccinated is already well below that of people without a vaccination:

This can be observed even more clearly in the next two age groups:

Statisticians also deny it

The researchers at the British statistical agency Office for National Statistics (ONS) also see it this way: The statisticians explain that the age-standardized mortality rate is significantly higher in unvaccinated people than in people who received either one or two doses. It is 32 times higher in people without a vaccination than in those who had received two doses at least 21 days ago.

The number can also be influenced by different characteristics of the population in the individual vaccination status groups, such as the state of health, as well as by the changing infection rate. Therefore, the death rates show no causal links between vaccinations and the mortality risk, emphasize the ONS experts.

But what happens after the first vaccination?

What is striking, however, is that the mortality rate for the group “21 days or more after the first dose” rises sharply in the elderly from around the 13th calendar week. Opponents of vaccination see this as a further indication of the dangers of vaccination.

The statisticians explain this phenomenon through several factors: First of all, the proportion of this vaccination status group drops to very low values ​​over the same period because more and more people are vaccinated. Therefore, the data is based on a very small percentage that need not be representative. For example, this group could include people who did not receive a second vaccination after the first vaccination because they were hospitalized for a serious illness.

Much data too imprecise for clear statements

Last but not least, the different mortality rates in the age groups must be taken into account. The group of ten- to 59-year-olds is very broad – too broad for many reliable statements, as the statisticians of the ONS admit: Usually one would calculate the data for five-year age groups. However, with very low death rates in some of these cohorts, this could have posed a risk to disclosure of the vaccination status of individuals and could have led to unstable estimates.

The fact that there are still very few deaths in the group of ten to 59-year-olds compared to the older age groups – both in absolute and relative terms – becomes all the more clear when all data are presented in the same range of values. The group is barely recognizable in the graphic representation:

This makes it clear that the conclusion that “vaccinated people die more often than unvaccinated people” cannot be derived from these data.