The right wing will be engaged in an infernal showdown over the next few weeks. On the one hand, Xavier Bertrand, determined to rally behind his candidacy and who does not want to hear about the primary. On the other, the leaders of the Republicans, who do not want to let the president of Hauts-de-France slip off without a hitch towards the presidential election.
In the midst of this inextricable situation, Christian Jacob tries to buy time. After a hectic political office on Tuesday, the boss of LR, decided… not to decide anything. In any case not now, pushing back to the start of the school year the question of the separation of candidates. 20 minutes examines the three possible scenarios for the coming months.
Scenario 1: all united behind Bertrand
This is the scenario of the optimists: by the end of the summer, Xavier Bertrand succeeds in uniting the whole right behind him. “I have a particular responsibility, it is up to me to lead this gathering” and to make “that each one finds his place with his differences”, declared this Wednesday morning the candidate on BFMTV. The LR management instructed the “wise man” of the movement, Jean Leonetti, to meet all the figures of the right during the summer: Laurent Wauquiez, Valérie Pécresse, Bruno Retailleau and the other contenders.
“He will do the meal rounds to find out who really wants to go and under what conditions, and put everyone around the table,” says Gilles Platret, spokesperson for the party. “In the best case, it results in an agreement for one of them to go, supported by the others.” This lead could materialize if Xavier Bertrand killed the match in the polls and discouraged his competitors from getting into the race.
Scenario 2: the cadors’ match in a primary
If by August 20 no agreement is reached, the party will launch an opinion poll among supporters right to try to see more clearly on the forces in presence. “Xavier Bertrand will probably not be alone [prétendant déclaré] for a very long time and, by August 20, those interested must have formalized their applications to be tested. A selection process will then be presented to the activists, who will validate it or not during a vote in Congress on September 25, in order to have a single candidate in November ”, indicates Gilles Platret.
It could be the famous open primary on which the movement has been working for several weeks already, and demanded loud and clear Monday by Valérie Pécresse, Laurent Wauquiez, Bruno Retailleau and the boss of the centrists Hervé Morin. “We have to imagine a wider system, which is significant in terms of participation and allows to attract Xavier Bertrand”, adds the spokesperson LR.
Scenario 3: Divisions lead to fratricidal clash
It is the track that thrills Christian Jacob and a good part of the right: no agreement is found between the top names and Xavier Bertrand continues to ignore his former party. The Republicans could therefore designate their champion in November, facing the solo candidacy of Xavier Bertrand.
“If there are two candidates on the right, we lose. He has too much political experience to know that alone he cannot win. We need to be brought together, ”said Christian Jacob. on LCI this Wednesday. “For Xavier Bertand to choose the scorched earth policy seems impossible to me. He would lose the right and carry it like a cardinal sin. Soon, the pressure will be on him, ”wants to believe Gilles Platret. However, the person has indicated on several occasions that he would be a candidate no matter what.