fact check
terrorism
After the death of leader al-Zawahiri – is the terrorist network al-Qaeda on the verge of an end?
Osama bin Laden (left), who was killed by US soldiers in 2011, and his successor at the head of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization, Aiman al-Zawahiri, in a photograph published in 2001
©Ausaf Newspaper/EPA/DPA
At the end of July, the US killed al-Qaeda boss Aiman al-Zawahiri with a drone attack. The 71-year-old had led the terrorist organization since 2011. Some experts now see al-Qaida on the brink of extinction, others at a crossroads.
The Emir is dead. A US drone killed the successor to Osama Bin Laden and leader of the al-Qaeda terrorist network, Aiman al-Zawahiri. The terror network lacks the leadership structure to pose a threat to the United States, claims ex-CIA chief Leon Panetta. But a UN Security Council document just a few weeks ago – before al-Zawahiri’s death – described how things should continue and who could be available as a successor.
First and foremost is Saif al-Adl. As a former officer in the Egyptian armed forces and longtime strategist of military operations, he is one of the veterans of the organization and has been involved in various assassinations. He is said to be in Iran and from there for a long time maintained the connections between the headquarters in the Hindu Kush and the satellite organizations in Africa.
But it remains to be seen whether he will step out of the shadows: even if the so-called Hittin Committee, which is responsible for finding the successor within core al-Qaeda, should appoint him, it will be difficult for him to evade the Iranian domestic secret service . This also applies to Abd al-Rahman al-Maghribi, a computer specialist and son-in-law of the slain leader. He is said to have long directed the organization’s media campaigns from Iran.
“Professor” Aiman al-Zawahiri lacked charisma
One could continue this list. Terrorists from the Kaida branches in Somalia, Algeria or from groups close to Kaida in the Syrian civil war are also ready to take over the leadership of the entire organization. The most promising aspirants have long come from the Kaida Group in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). She was considered Kaida’s most powerful arm. In the southeast and in the rugged mountains of the Yemeni region of Hadhramaut, the terrorist network has conquered its own territory, benefiting from the civil war.
AQAP bosses like Anwar al-Awlaki and Nasir al-Wuhaishi were significantly more charismatic than the aged emir in Afghanistan, known as the “professor,” who was always seen lecturing for the camera. They appealed to a young audience, posed martially in front of the camera with weapons, posted content on the organization’s Arabic and English-language social media channels and also inspired numerous attacks – until US drones struck them down.
Americans and their allies persistently located, tracked down and eliminated the leaders of the Yemeni branch of al Qaeda. And as far as the Yemeni group is concerned, it was a successful strategy against global jihad: today there seems to be no one left who would be suitable for the post of head of central Qaeda. Management has been thinned out.
Al Qaeda is at a crossroads
Presumably Leon Panetta’s remark is aimed at such developments. US intelligence and military have long sought to target al Qaeda and ISIS leaders in an attempt to “dry up” the organizations. They also struck a heavy blow in the case of al-Zawahiri. However, al-Qaeda does not appear to have been destroyed by this, but rather to be at a crossroads: if the successor comes from a regional satellite organization in Syria, Mali, Algeria or Somalia, the target could shift from “global jihad” to “the West” into regional conflicts. The fight against Assad in Syria and against the governments in Algeria and Mali would then be in the foreground.
The fight against “the West” would then only be a propaganda reminiscence. However, it might also be possible for a successor to strengthen the core organization and its global orientation. Possibly someone who impresses more than his predecessor.
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Sources:United Nations Security Report (PDF document) / Blog “Lawfare” / European Council on Foreign Relations / Center for International Security and Cooperation