Status: 05/16/2022 04:20 a.m
The NRW-CDU wins, but cannot govern safely. The Greens come with power – also in the federal government. The Chancellor is more ballast than a bonus. And then there is the FDP. The findings from the NRW election.
The new confusion
The election result in NRW is clear, but little is clear. Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst’s CDU won, but his black and yellow state government was voted out. The SPD suffered a historic defeat in the highly symbolic city of North Rhine-Westphalia – by the way, the second within two weeks – and could still conquer the state chancellery in Düsseldorf in the end. The Greens triumph – but now have at least one big problem. The FDP is halved, makes it into the state parliament with oh and noisy – and could still be used to co-govern. With so much ambiguity, the only thing that is clear is that there are politically exciting weeks ahead in NRW on the way to a new government. And because NRW is NRW, also to the federal government.
NRW is ripe for a premiere
North Rhine-Westphalia hasn’t been red for a long time, but it’s also no longer black and yellow. And not red-green either. The election results are forcing the parties to break up their camps and break new ground. Other federal states have long been further along and cross-camp coalitions are common practice. Black-green or a traffic light made up of SPD, Greens and FDP? That would be a premiere in NRW. In view of his political flexibility, it can be assumed that the CDU election winner Wüst would be capable of such pioneering work. The Greens around Mona Neubaur also remained as flexible as possible in the election campaign – in the end it probably depends on what the CDU can offer them. And whether they can make the result of their more left-leaning green party base palatable.
The Greens are in the comfortable position of being able to forge a government alliance with the SPD and FDP who lost out in the elections. But that would require real pioneers, especially among the badly plucked Liberals, to switch to the Red and Green camp.
And then such a tripartite alliance would also have to be politically credibly argued to the outside world. “Tomorrow’s prime minister” – Kuchaty in the election campaign about Kuchaty – would already have a lot to explain today. Of course, runners-up can also become prime minister or chancellor if they get a majority behind them. Armin Laschet tried this after the narrowly lost federal election – accompanied by loud outrage from the SPD.
More ballast as a bonus
When Hannelore Kraft lost power on the Rhine for the SPD in the 2017 federal election year, the score was 0:3. Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein were already lost. A little later, the SPD around Martin Schulz also lost the federal election. From the point of view of the Social Democrats, it is not that bad this time. Olaf Scholz is chancellor, there is a sole SPD government in Saarland, and in Schleswig-Holstein there was simply nothing to be gained against Daniel Günther. But definitely in NRW. And so Scholz campaigned together with Thomas Kutschaty, hoping that a little of the chancellor’s bonus would rub off on the somewhat pale top candidate. But instead of a chancellor bonus, there was chancellor ballast. So how much Scholz is in the SPD election failure? How much responsibility does he see in himself? He will have to put up with this question.
The social-democratic decade – proclaimed with great enthusiasm after the federal election eight months ago – could end again. In the SPD, which had just worked its way out of its years-long low and finally brought peace to the party, the alarm bells are likely to be ringing again. The hope that there will still be an SPD-led traffic light government in NRW is correspondingly high. A traffic light copy in NRW would also be strategic for the SPD.
NRW chooses – the traffic light crunches
The elections in Schleswig-Holstein a week ago brought a certain amount of unrest to the governing coalition in Berlin. The Greens tried hard to be happy about their record result in Kiel and refrained from shouting triumphantly out of consideration for the two co-government partners. The FDP in particular might have felt provoked.
However, the outcome of the election in North Rhine-Westphalia will almost certainly shift the power structure in the traffic light in favor of the Greens. The party around its flagship ministers Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock is benefiting in the long term from co-governing in the federal government – even now in North Rhine-Westphalia. The Greens have become a force, despite a relatively weak top candidate, they get the second record result in a row. They should now appear even more confident in the federal government.
The FDP, on the other hand, has to ask itself why you obviously don’t get the co-government. Party leader Christian Lindner absolutely wanted to take over the finance ministry in the fall – and is now responsible for a record debt budget, also as a result of the Ukraine war and its effects. As a former top candidate in North Rhine-Westphalia, he provided a slight tailwind, but even that wasn’t enough. Other FDP ministers in the traffic light cabinet remain rather pale. It is quite possible that the FDP will have a course and strategy debate in the house and that they will then try to sharpen their profile in the government. In other words: It could become more toxic and governing in threes more restless. The centrifugal forces stronger. Scholz – himself stricken – will be in demand as a moderator.
And Merz laughs?
The NRW-CDU has achieved an unexpectedly clear election success with Wüst and thus initially strengthens party leader Friedrich Merz. And not because he himself comes from North Rhine-Westphalia. Two election victories in a row are almost a series that makes you forget the previous series of defeats. “The CDU is back,” he tweeted on election night. But how much Merz is in the election victories? Merz is only a support for NRW for around a third of those surveyed by Infratest dimap. Tailwind isn’t.
Strategically, however, the NRW election victory is extremely important for Merz. If Wüst succeeds in the black-green experiment in the most populous federal state, it would also offer the CDU in the federal government a realistic perspective of power for 2025. Or – if the traffic lights in the federal government don’t keep up – even earlier.
However, Merz cannot be too sure that he will still be number 1 in the CDU. Because with Günther and Wüst, inner-party competitors are growing up, who certainly let ambitions shine through at the federal level. Günther’s weight in the party is likely to increase significantly after his 40 percent result, at 48 he is part of the party’s future reserve. Also with Wust must be reckoned with. Anyone who wins and governs in NRW automatically belongs to the circle of potential chancellor candidates in the CDU. Both could make Merz look old very quickly. Especially since with Günther and Wüst two types of politicians have won, who stand for a different political style and for a different course than Merz. More liberal, less conservative and less confrontational.