After the pressure drop: price jump on the natural gas market

Status: 09/28/2022 12:40 p.m

The price of natural gas on the European market has jumped by around 14 percent at times. The reason is the three leaks in the Baltic Sea gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2.

Prices on the natural gas market have risen significantly today. The price of the futures contract TTF for Dutch natural gas for delivery in October jumped by 14 percent to 212 euros per megawatt hour. The contract for the January date 2023 increased by a good eleven percent to almost 234 euros. The TTF contract serves as a benchmark for the price level on the European natural gas market.

After three leaks in just a short time on the Baltic Sea gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, an act of sabotage cannot be ruled out. If it was an attack, only a state actor would be an option given the effort involved, it said.

No restrictions on natural gas supply

German and Danish authorities pointed out that the incidents had no impact on the gas supply, as the pipelines had not recently been used for gas imports. While gas was still flowing from Russia to Germany via Nord Stream 1 until a few weeks ago – albeit with reduced capacity – the approval for Nord Stream 2 was put on hold by the federal government shortly before the Russian attack on Ukraine. After that, Berlin had ruled out using it because of the war.

In the opinion of the commodity expert Michael Blumenroth from Deutsche Bank, it is now clear to the market that under no circumstances will more gas flow through the two pipelines in the future. On the contrary, Blumenroth believes it is possible that the market is concerned that Russia could also stop the remaining gas flows through Ukraine and Turkey to Western Europe in the future.

The price development shows how nervous the natural gas market is, said Heiko Lohmann from the market observer Energate Gasmarkt. The market is illiquid, which increases fluctuations. However, Lohmann does not believe that the now higher prices will last. “It will go down again,” said Lohmann.

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