After the presidential election: What Putin’s show of power means

It is an election victory with an announcement – the Russian electoral authority claims to have determined 88 percent for Putin. The president can now remain in power until at least 2030. What does this mean for his country, the war and the West?

Putin’s apparatus has the country firmly under control – more than ever

Whether 68, 78 or 88 percent approval for Putin – it basically doesn’t matter what number the state electoral authority announces as the result of the presidential election. Because this election was never free and democratic. Unlike the previous election, this time there weren’t even candidates who even remotely deserved the label “opponent.” Brave, hand-picked pillars of the system were supposed to simulate the possibility of selection, but there was no real election campaign. The state-controlled media did everything they could to ensure the re-election of the president with the desired result.

The possibilities for manipulating election days were more extensive than ever and were used accordingly. Voters were literally pressured, if not forced, to take part in the election and vote yes for Putin. Independent election observers whose work opportunities meet Western standards were not allowed.

Since 2012, when he returned to office after a short break (without any real loss of power), Putin has worked with all means to maintain and increase his power. He has increasingly persecuted the opposition, putting potential leaders in camps or driving them abroad and having them hunted down by his henchmen.

Independent media were smashed and critical journalists were also harassed by the judiciary or forced into exile. In 2020 he had the constitution tailored to him and held a mock referendum on it. It enabled him to run again and be confirmed after two consecutive and four terms in office.

His rule was never in danger. But like all authoritarian rulers, Putin believes that he has to periodically present an apparent legitimation, an alleged proof that his rule and his policies are widely supported by the population. It is in the logic of this way of thinking that the approval rate had to be disproportionately high and, under the special conditions of this election, significantly higher than in the last election – at that time the electoral authorities reported 77 percent for Putin.

He has now had this document issued to him by the state election authority. There is not the slightest indication that he will loosen total control over the country once confirmed. The constitution allows the 71-year-old to run again in 2030 for another six years, his health permitting. Everything indicates that this is what he is aiming for – he and his inner circle also have too much to lose. And Putin is no longer just concerned with ruling his own country.

Poor prospects for an early end to the war

Putin’s second need for legitimacy concerned the war of aggression against Ukraine. Two years after the full-scale attack on the neighboring country, the election was also intended to demonstrate how much the population supports the war – even though the Russian army has far missed its original war goal of quickly subjugating Ukraine, is fighting an extremely losing battle and will likely have to fight for a long time to come . This is also why Putin needed an approval rating that was higher than that of 2018.

He will now use the manipulated election victory as a further argument for continuing the war against Ukraine with undiminished severity. The current weakness of the Ukrainian army is a reason for Putin to reject any idea of ​​a ceasefire – he emphasized this again in an interview during the election.

Negotiations over the conquered territories that have been taken from Ukraine since 2014 are not an issue for Putin anyway – they would mean failure and thus probably an end to his presidency. The brutality with which the election was enforced in the occupied and annexed territories in violation of international law underlines Russia’s claim to dominance in the east and southeast of Ukraine.

Putin subordinates everything in the country to war and therefore turns his attention abroad on the day of the election – with a warning of a third world war if NATO countries send ground troops to Ukraine.

The Russian opposition is small – but it exists

Even after 24 years of rule and oppression, Putin probably has a majority of Russians behind him. This is what studies by election researchers like Lev Gudkow indicate. There are many reasons for this – economic stability at a low level despite all the sanctions is one of them, as is the massive promotion of nationalism through state propaganda, the caricature of a threat from the West, the constant indoctrination by the state media and the discrediting of all those who think differently.

The opposition has been notoriously divided over the years; its leading representative, Alexei Navalny, died shortly before the election under brutal prison conditions in the camp. Other representatives are serving long prison sentences or have fled into exile. Still others have fallen silent under the pressure of persecution from the security authorities. It was all the more remarkable that thousands of Russians attended Navalny’s funeral, knowing full well that they, like all activists from Navalny’s network, risked imprisonment.

There were also such signs of the willingness of Putin’s opponents to assert themselves on the third day of voting – symbolically long queues at 12 o’clock in front of some polling stations in several cities – and also abroad, actions in the polling stations with changed ballot papers or color in the ballot boxes. Undoubtedly – in relation to the mass of voters, these were isolated actions. But they showed that Putin’s grip on the population is not total and that there is a core of democratic resistance to him and his war in the country.

What the election means for the West

If Putin were to be re-elected for another six years in 2030, he would have been in power for around 36 years, longer than Catherine the Great – one can assume that amateur historian Putin likes the idea. The West must therefore prepare for a long continuation of Putin’s rule. With all the consequences – the confrontation with his regime is unlikely to diminish for the time being.

There is no end in sight to the war in Ukraine. Russia’s attempt to destabilize the former Soviet republics and former Warsaw Pact states in its neighborhood is likely to continue unabated. Western democracies must expect that Russia will continue to try to undermine them with disinformation – especially before the European elections in the spring and the US presidential election in the fall. Russia, together with China, is also likely to increasingly focus on weakening Western alliances, strengthening other alliances such as that of the BRICS states and thus pushing back the influence of the West.

This makes unity and unified action all the more important for the EU and NATO. This is not a given, considering, among others, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Orban has repeatedly questioned the sense of sanctions against Russia – the further debate will show how solid the West remains in dealing with Russia.

The punitive measures have so far failed to achieve their actual goal of massively weakening Russia economically. But their symbolic value and consequences cannot be overlooked and may increase in the long term. This could now be a matter of closing further loopholes in the sanctions.

And the West still has allies in Russia – in the group of beleaguered opposition members. After Election Day, they need support more than ever. This also applies to the Russian media in exile. The past few weeks have shown that they continue to have an impact on Russia and thus maintain hope for a different Russia.