The victory of the right-wing populist Milei in the runoff election in Argentina caused frenetic celebrations among his supporters. However, many Argentines are now very worried. Experts warn of social tensions.
It was a landslide victory that no poll had predicted – the jubilation among Javier Milei’s supporters was all the more frenetic. About 3,000 people marched in front of his campaign headquarters in downtown Buenos Aires, draped in Argentine flags to celebrate their idol. “I’m happy!” said 52-year-old Soledad, “finally these thieves have to take their hats off. Long live freedom, damn it!”
It was a before and an after, said Rodrigo, a young man in an Argentina shirt. He believes “the entire era of corruption” is over. “We lived in an economic dictatorship. Let’s hope that this president will make things better.”
A little later, Milei came on stage with his sister Karina. He appeared statesmanlike. This was a historic night, he explained in a calm tone: Argentina’s reconstruction was beginning. “Today ends the model of the omnipresent state, which only benefits a few while the majority of Argentines suffer. Today we once again embrace the ideas of freedom.”
Milei promises a radical turnaround
Milei was eleven percentage points ahead. His election victory was so clear that his opponent, Argentina’s incumbent economy minister Sergio Massa, admitted defeat even before the official results were available. “I contacted Milei to congratulate him and wish him luck because he is the president that the majority elected.”
The self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Milei promises a radical turnaround from the policies of the ruling Peronists, who had relied on a strong welfare state with massive interventions: He wants to close the central bank and dissolve most ministries, drastically cut social spending and use the US dollar as a means of payment introduce. The elected President Milei now promised free trade, without privileges. He will tackle reforms quickly: “Argentina’s crisis is drastic. There is no room for a policy of small steps and for half-heartedness.”
“No one with such extreme views on economic issues has ever been elected president of a South American country,” says economist Mark Weisbrot from the US research institute Center for Economic and Policy Research to the dpa news agency. “It barely recognizes a legitimate role for government in some of the most important policy areas that most people see as necessary for a democratic, humane and stable society.”
Profited from frustration over inflation and poverty
Milei has benefited from frustration with the status quo, a permanent crisis with inflation now at 140 percent and poverty at 40 percent. And the frustration with the Peronist center-left coalition, which has no solution and is also involved in corruption scandals. The election of the libertarian populist also means a victory for the new, global right – Donald Trump, Elon Musk and Jair Bolsonaro have already congratulated.
The fact that, exactly 40 years after the return to democracy, the new right has now achieved a victory in Argentina of all places is a source of extreme concern for many. “I am very worried that those who have little will soon have even less. That this country will become a socially unfair country and that we are in for a very, very ugly time,” said a young man in tears in front of the election center Massas.
“I’m scared, nothing more than scared,” said Massa voter Belen Martinez. She is particularly worried about Milei’s future vice president, Victoria Villarruel. The daughter of high-ranking military officials serves conservative clientele, maintains contacts with right-wing groups around the world and repeatedly trivialized state terror during the military dictatorship (1976-1983) with an estimated 30,000 disappearances. “With a president who trivializes the military dictatorship, who is sexist and misogynistic and who denies climate change – you can’t build a country for nobody like that!”
Milei won’t get far alone
Now, however, Milei’s ability to compromise will likely be tested, because despite his radical rhetoric, the newcomer to politics won’t get far on his own. Even if he can rely on the support of part of the conservative opposition under former President Maurici Macri, that will not ensure him a majority in Congress.
Political scientist Juan Negri is concerned about the country’s governability: “He is a president with very little institutional support, much less than Bolsonaro had in Brazil or Trump in the USA. There are very few experienced political cadres who accompany him, that is : There is a very high level of improvisation.” According to Negri, Milei will not be able to meet the different expectations that voters have of him and will quickly lose popularity. “I fear we will experience an institutional standstill and great social tensions.”
The big question is: What will happen in the next few days? Both Massa and Milei said the other bears responsibility for social and economic developments until the handover of office on December 10th. The voted-out government has virtually no control left; Massa submitted a leave of absence from office on Sunday evening. Experts fear that there is a risk of another abrupt devaluation of the Argentine peso, which Milei repeatedly described during the election campaign as worthless like “excrement.” Much will therefore depend on a meeting scheduled for today between outgoing President Alberto Fernández and Milei.
Anne Herrberg, ARD Rio de Janeiro, tagesschau, November 20, 2023 5:00 a.m