After the earthquake in Turkey: Doubts about Erdogan’s building promises

Within a year, far more than 400,000 apartments are to be built for those affected by the earthquake. At least that’s what Turkish President Erdogan promises. But experts consider this to be campaign banter.

In the southern earthquake province of Hatay, tents are under water after heavy rains. In Sanliurfa and Adiyaman, masses of rain flood the streets several meters high, taking everything with it. Again people are dying from the force of nature. A resident of the flooded tents in Hatay is in despair: “We survived the earthquake, now we will die in the water. God saved us during the earthquake – now the state is leaving us to die again.”

No one will be left behind, promises President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The construction of the first more than 20,000 apartments has already begun. In the next two months it should be ten times as many – all earthquake-proof this time. Erdogan’s goal is ambitious: “Within a year, everyone who has the right to move into their new apartments.”

“A city is not just made up of residential buildings”

Taner Yüzgec doesn’t think so. He is the chairman of the Chamber of Civil Engineers in Ankara. In an interview with the ARD radio studio in Istanbul he warns against hastily erected test-tube cities. The planning alone usually takes a year. “Building far more than 400,000 apartments within a year means building completely new cities,” he says. But a city does not only consist of residential buildings, “but has to be thought through together with all its social components”.

Everything is done, says Erdogan. New living spaces would be created along with infrastructure: schools, hospitals, shops, places of worship and parks. Civil engineer Yüzgec remains skeptical. He thinks it’s wrong to start building now anyway, because the disaster region is still being shaken by aftershocks, some of which are strong. And shaky ground is not the building site for new houses.

Even more decisive, however, why the reconstruction cannot succeed so quickly are logistical reasons. “That would mean that all construction companies in Turkey would work in the earthquake area. That’s neither practical nor technically possible. You have to take such announcements as campaign promises,” says Yüzgec.

Is it about votes?

They’re doing well ahead of the May elections. If Erdogan has his way, everything should revolve around reconstruction, at least until then. Maybe he hopes to get votes from it.

His followers believe in him anyway. When asked by an online magazine whether the reconstruction could be completed within a year, one man said: “I think so. Has anyone from the opposition commented on this, did anyone say, ‘This man can’t possibly do it in a year?’ Why not? Because this man did everything he said he would do. And he will do it again.”

The task is not only organizationally difficult to manage. The earthquake area measures hundreds of kilometers in all directions. Financially, too, it will be an unprecedented feat for Turkey. Turkey has set up a reconstruction fund into which all funds are to flow, including from abroad. The fund is to be controlled by members of the government.

Around 100 billion euros in economic damage

There is talk of economic damage of around 100 billion euros. A large part of this is in residential buildings. This is exactly where savings could be made, according to Yüzgec from the Chamber of Civil Engineers: strengthening houses – and thus making them earthquake-proof instead of tearing them down.

The reconstruction could be 30 to 40 percent cheaper: “You would save time and money and also do the environment a favor. Of course you can’t repair every damaged building – you have to check that on a case-by-case basis. But the ‘reinforcement’ option will – to put it this way – ignored by the construction lobby.”