As early as last autumn, the question arose as to what effects a possible destruction of the Kachowka dam as a result of the war in Ukraine could have. At the time, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of wanting to blow up the dam. A group of Swedish engineers then came up with a scenario that sounds terrifying: the water would flow out of the reservoir faster than Niagara Falls; within 19 hours, a four to five meter high water wave would hit the city of Cherson. This was predicted by the study published by the Dämningsverket company. Reality overtook calculations. “It looks like the real scenario was even worse than in my model”, says Henrik Ölander-Hjalmarsson, one of the engineers who Washington Post. The reason: “The water level in the reservoir was significantly higher than in my model,” says the engineer.
The extent of the catastrophe following the destruction of the Kachowka Dam is not yet foreseeable: more than 30,000 cubic meters of water per second are said to flow out of the reservoir. The water levels are constantly rising. The water will rise another meter by Thursday morning, spokesman for the Kherson military administration, Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, said on Ukrainian television on Wednesday. There is also concern that the dam will continue to collapse.
More than 42,000 people on both banks of the Dnieper (Dnipro) are threatened by flooding, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and hundreds of thousands are without drinking water supplies. 80 towns may be affected by flooding. Among them is the small town of Oleschky, which, according to the governor appointed by Russia, is almost completely flooded. According to Russian sources, around 100 people are trapped in the masses of water in the Russian-occupied city of Nowa Kachowka. The city is right next to the dam. Rescue operations for these people were underway, Moscow mayor Vladimir Leontyev told the Russian news agency Tass.
Effects on agriculture and the environment
The rupture of the dam will have devastating effects, especially for agriculture in southern Ukraine, because since the 1950s the fields have been irrigated by canals that also feed from the reservoir. According to the Ukrainian government, these fields could turn into deserts in the coming year because the water supply in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia has been cut off. Around four million tons of grain and oilseeds were harvested on 584,000 hectares of cultivated land. Around 10,000 hectares of fields alone on the right bank controlled by Ukraine in the Kherson Oblast would be flooded. Significantly more acreage would be under water on the left side controlled by Russia.
According to information from the Ukrainian government, at least 150 tons of machine oil also spilled into the Dnieper. Another 300 tons of oil threatened to leak. What impact this will have on the environment cannot yet be foreseen. But the list keeps getting longer: The Ukrainian environmental movement Ecoaction has pointed out in a summary the many problems that can arise from the flooding of sewage systems: For example, pollutants from industrial plants near the Dnieper could be washed into the Black Sea. Several national parks are threatened with complete destruction, including the Oleschky Sande National Park and the Black Sea Biosphere Reserve.
There is one more danger: flooded minefields. Parts of Kherson Oblast are mined as Russia prepares for Ukrainian counterattacks there. Mines can be spread uncontrollably by the water masses and detonate when they hit trees or buildings.