The Bundeswehr has not yet withdrawn when a wave of violence hits Mali: Rival Islamist militias are spreading across the country – and the army is relying on the Wagner Group to combat them.
Under normal circumstances, a festive mood would slowly spread in the Sahel state of Mali: the country is moving towards September 22nd, the national holiday that traditionally commemorates independence from the colonial power France. But nothing is normal in Mali these days; a horrific series of attacks recently shocked the country.
Last week, al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists fired three rockets at a ferry in the Timbuktu region, killing dozens of civilians. At the same time, militants attacked an army base in the Gao region, killing 15 soldiers. Just a day later, suicide bombers carried out another attack on a Malian army camp. The detonations and the exchange of fire could also be clearly heard in the camp of the UN peacekeepers and the Bundeswehr. Because they are only stationed 1.5 kilometers away – yet. The withdrawal is in full swing.
With the blue helmets the buffer disappears
There is no question that the new wave of violence is directly linked to the withdrawal of UN troops. When the United Nations mission called MINUSMA handed over a camp in the Timbuktu region to the Malian army in mid-August, it only took a few days for fighting to break out there.
The German mission in Mali has often been criticized as useless because it has worsened the security situation over the last ten years, explains Ulf Laessing, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali’s capital Bamako. “But now it is clear that the Bundeswehr and the UN have managed to keep the conflicting parties apart in principle.” But with the arrival of the blue helmets, this buffer between the combatants also disappears.
Situation in the north is reminiscent of 2012
It is a toxic mixture of hostile groups that are fighting for power and zones of influence, especially in northern Mali: armed Tuareg separatists who would like to establish their own state; Terrorists affiliated with al-Qaeda and the terrorist militia “Islamic State,” who are not only warring against the Malian army but also against each other; and organized criminals. All of these groups are “vying to secure trade and smuggling routes through the northern Gao and Kidal regions,” according to a UN report released last month.
In addition, it is not only the Malian army, supported by Russian Wagner mercenaries, that has its eye on the vacant UN camps: the Tuareg rebels see it as a declaration of war that the Malian state now wants to establish itself there. In short, what is brewing in the north of Mali shows frightening parallels to the situation a good ten years ago – when jihadists and Tuareg rebels dominated the north. This was the reason why first France and then the United Nations felt compelled to intervene. Is history repeating itself there?
Bundeswehr sees itself “on schedule”
The fact that the blue helmets and the Bundeswehr are withdrawing – and faster than planned – is happening at the express request of the military government in Bamako: those in power consider the UN presence to be ineffective and are instead relying entirely on Russia and its mercenary force of around 1,000 men.
As far as the MINUSMA soldiers and the Bundeswehr are concerned, they have not recently been directly targeted by the militants. But the United Nations is under no illusions that the current phase of withdrawal from the increasingly contested zone in northern Mali is likely to be even more difficult than the previous one.
When the suicide bombers detonated their explosives in their attack on the Malian forces last week, soldiers in the German Camp Castor sought shelter for safety reasons. As a spokesman for the operational command in Potsdam confirmed, flight operations were temporarily suspended. However, it is urgently necessary that the airport in Gao, which is located directly next to the camp, can continue to operate, as the lion’s share of the return transport is handled by air. Flights are now flying again and we are “on schedule in terms of personnel and material,” it says ARD-Demand from Potsdam.
Development Assistance after the withdrawal
However, the fact that the security situation around the German Camp Castor has worsened is not good news. “You are most vulnerable when you are retreating,” was a much-quoted sentence when the people withdrew from Afghanistan. And time is increasingly pressing in Mali: all material and personnel must be home by the end of the year. The Bundeswehr is confident that it will be able to stick to the timetable: the relocation is proceeding “according to plan”.
As far as Mali itself is concerned, experts have been warning for months that violence will break out again after the UN withdraws. There are already initial signs of this. “The Malian army is trying to maintain control in the north with the help of the Russians, but that will be difficult,” says country expert Ulf Laessing. Now Germany and the United Nations have promised to remain active in the country even after the withdrawal – with development aid. However, this will hardly be possible in regions where fighting breaks out openly. The scope for maneuver is shrinking, both for Mali’s military government and for the West’s influence.