After the balloon launch: why the US-China relationship is so difficult

A suspected Chinese spy balloon strains the relationship between the two superpowers. For the United States, China remains the greatest geopolitical challenge ahead of Russia – how dangerous could the conflict become?

Why has a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US caused such a stir? The background is the fundamental rivalry between the two countries. In the USA, it is not Russia but China that is seen as the greatest geopolitical challenge, and an escalation of the conflict also seems at least conceivable.

At its core, this crisis is not about the downed balloon itself. Similar surveillance balloons from China have flown over US territory before, and satellites from China and the US collect data about the other country on a daily basis. It’s about something else:

“It’s much more about China’s behavior as a whole than this one incident,” Democratic Congressman Adam Smith told CNN. Like many Republicans in Congress, Democrat Smith finds China’s behavior increasingly aggressive: “China is acting like a ruthless bully,” Smith said.

In times of “strained relationships”

Dave Shullman, China expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, puts the significance of the balloon incident like this:

“The point is that the incident comes in the middle of a very strained relationship,” Shullman told NPR radio. China’s indirect support for Russia in the Ukraine war, tightened US controls on technology exports and, of course, the conflict over Taiwan strained relations between the two countries last year.

After the meeting of Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali, there was further hope in the now canceled visit of Foreign Minister Antony Blinken to Beijing. “It is questionable whether a subsequent visit can still do that with all the dark clouds on the horizon,” says Shullman.

Tensions mount

Republican William Cohen, once Secretary of Defense to Democratic President Bill Clinton, is not a rabble-rouser but rather a voice from the middle of the political spectrum. He addresses what many in Washington think: a war with China is by no means impossible, whether deliberate or triggered by a misunderstanding:

“It could actually happen at any moment. If we don’t manage relations with China properly. If we do something or they do something that we see as a threat or vice versa. Then we can find ourselves in a third world war with China.”

Diplomacy is all the more important, according to Cohen at CNN. The Blinken trip must take place: “It is important for our foreign minister to aim for a meeting with President Xi again as soon as reasonably possible.”

US keeps China under surveillance

Security expert and author Elbridge Colby, formerly on the planning staff of the US Department of Defense, assesses the danger of war as follows:

“There is a very realistic concern that there could be a war with China this decade. When you talk to US officials, the only difference is exactly how likely it is and when a war can happen,” so Colby in the ARD interview.

US Air Force General Mike Minihan recently warned that there could be a war with China as early as 2025, Colby said. CIA chief William Burns, who is considered to be sober and level-headed, also clearly outlined the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027. “It’s 2023. For military planners, 2027 is just a blink of an eye,” says Colby.

Colby also shares the view of US Naval General David Berger. He emphasized: “No one can be sure if and when there will be a war with China. But: The USA and its allies must be prepared. Because a): it can happen at any time and b): the better we are prepared, the better less likely it will happen.”