After the revelations by the media company “Correctiv” about a meeting of radical right-wingers, which was also attended by AfD members, hundreds of thousands took to the streets. Now they are becoming fewer. Over, over, checked off? Not quite, say experts.
The next few days will continue in Vilsbiburg, Jüterbog and Nienburg an der Weser. People in Buxtehude, Wismar and Roßlau also want to take to the streets again against right-wing extremism. But the huge demonstrations that began around three months ago with the revelations by the media company “Correctiv” about a meeting of right-wing radicals in Potsdam are visibly subsiding. “It was foreseeable that the protests would not be able to mobilize the masses in the long term,” says Berlin protest researcher Simon Teune. “That’s the logic of protests, that they don’t stay at this level in the long term.”
And now? What was the point of hundreds of thousands of people running in the cold and rain behind banners saying “Stand up for democracy” and shouting “Never again is now”? “The dimension of these protests cannot be ignored,” says Teune. “It is probably the largest protest mobilization since the founding of the Federal Republic.” Unlike the fairy lights of the 1990s, the actions were widespread – in hundreds of smaller towns in the East and West. Even Teune cannot estimate exactly what will remain. But all of this will not leave Germany unscathed.
The AfD is falling in the polls – but it has many new members
The AfD was the number one protest target for many demonstrators. The party was not the organizer of the Potsdam meeting on November 25, 2023 – that was the dentist Gernot Mörig. The AfD did not present its program there – it was the new right-wing Austrian Martin Sellner who, according to his own statements, talked about so-called remigration, i.e. how millions of people with foreign roots should be forced out of Germany. But several AfD members were there, including Roland Hartwig, personal assistant to AfD leader Alice Weidel. Weidel immediately threw Hartwig out. But otherwise the AfD leader went into attack mode. She spoke of “incredible lies” in the reporting and called “Correctiv” an “auxiliary Stasi” in the service of the government.
Despite or because of this, the AfD has experienced two different trends since January: According to the federal office, the number of party members grew from just under 40,000 at the turn of the year to now more than 43,000. On the other hand, the AfD lost in the polls. After nationwide highs of up to 23 percent, the party has now dropped to 16 percent. It is currently 18 to 20 percent. It is unclear what part the “Correctiv” research played in this and how much the new competition from the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance is responsible, which was founded at the same time at the beginning of January and is also aimed at AfD voters.
The AfD is unsettled, observes protest researcher Teune. “The protests have meant that the AfD no longer has full control of the action.” That doesn’t mean that people are turning away from the AfD in droves. “But anyone who is not ideologically convinced could think again after the protests and stay at home in the elections instead of voting for the AfD.”
The green, educated middle
The fact that people took to the streets against the right was praised not only by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but also by Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. “This democratic center has achieved something with the demonstrations,” said Steinmeier in mid-February. “She banished indifference. She gave courage. We breathe more freely again.” And he combined this with an appeal: “Economy, work, culture, civil society, clubs and associations, everyone is in demand. We need the Democrats to join forces. Not just today, but 365 days a year.”
There is now initial data on who from the “democratic center” took to the streets. Researchers at the University of Konstanz surveyed 500 participants in three demonstrations in the southwest, namely in Konstanz, Singen and Radolfzell. At least there: A majority (53 percent) classified themselves as middle class and a third as upper middle class. Six out of ten respondents had a university degree, 20 percent had at least a high school diploma. This results in “a demographic bias in favor of a more highly educated section of the population at the upper end of the middle class,” conclude the authors Marco Bitschnau and Sebastian Koos.
In the previous federal election, 61 percent of those surveyed voted for Alliance 90/The Greens, 18 percent for the SPD and eight percent for the CDU. But they weren’t people who constantly demonstrate anyway: two thirds of those surveyed had never taken part in a rally with a similar content. Many had been worried about the strength of the AfD for a long time – the “correctiv research” into the Potsdam meeting was the “final straw,” according to the study.
Protest in Berlin
150,000 demonstrate against the right – impressions from the capital
“For the first time, a clear no”
“For the first time in ten years of the AfD’s rise, there has now been a clear no,” says Daniel Mullis from the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research in Frankfurt am Main. He sees more than a brief rebellion in the demonstrations. “I get feedback from many groups and organizations that there is a decent increase locally, for example among the grandmothers against the right,” reports the researcher. “You hear in many places that there is interest in getting involved in structures and getting involved against the right.”
This is also how the Fridays for Future movement sees it, which helped organize anti-right demonstrations in many places. “You showed many active people that years of work on site were not wasted effort – and many non-active people how effective commitment can be,” says spokesman Pit Terjung. “At the demonstrations, actors from all corners of civil society have come together; we are experiencing a dynamic revival of many new initiatives, alliances and networks.” From the activists’ point of view, it is not over yet, even if crowds no longer fill the streets and squares.
“The conflict is now on the table,” says researcher Mullis. “The AfD’s self-confidence is gone for now. But the conflict lines of society, the socio-economic tendencies, the fears of decline, the questions of migration and the climate crisis remain.” His expectation: “It is a very long-term dispute that we are facing. Specifically, there is a threat of a very substantial land grab from the right in the upcoming local, European and state elections.”