Status: 10/31/2022 6:49 p.m
It was one of the few positive developments in the Ukraine war: the grain agreement. Turkey helped mediate it. Now she is committed to keeping it that way. There is also a lot at stake for Erdogan.
Like strings of pearls, the freighters are heading from the Ukraine towards Istanbul. At the moment they are still off the Ukrainian coast. This is shown, for example, by the “Marine Traffic” portal. In the past, the grain ships sailed under the Istanbul Agreement of July – and therefore relatively safely.
Now that Russia has exposed it, things are different. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov speaks of a different character. It is now much riskier, more dangerous and without a guarantee, according to Peskow. However, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow and other authorities would continue to be in contact with the Turkish side and the United Nations.
Representatives from Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations sit in the coordination center in Istanbul – and still from Russia. Transports for today were announced there yesterday, but no longer coordinated with Russia.
Agreement great success for Erdogan
The Turkish Russia expert and government-critical journalist Hakan Aksay assumes that only a few ships can now sail through the corridor. “If Russia doesn’t accept that, i.e. if it no longer guarantees the safety of the ships, there is a risk that Russia will torpedo the grain ships,” says Aksay. “And in these wartime circumstances, where the risk is greater than ever, it will certainly also be difficult to continue to insure these ships.”
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the July agreement was a great success with its mechanisms that allowed the export of grain from Ukraine. “With the joint mechanism we set up in Istanbul, we put 9.3 million tons of Ukrainian wheat at the service of the world and made sure that the food crisis is mitigated.” Although Russia hesitates because it does not have the same opportunities, Turkey will resolutely continue “its efforts for humanity”.
“Agreement brought nothing to Russia”
Because Russia should also be allowed to export fertilizer and grain. Moscow complains that it never worked that way.
Expert Aksay says the agreement has done nothing for the Russian government politically, economically or militarily: “For example, the signing of the agreement hasn’t improved Russia’s image in the West.” Russia remains the aggressor, despite its willingness to compromise on grain, Aksay says.
In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Erdogan presents himself as a mediator in the grain agreement – for the first time as a more successful one. Aksay adds, also with a view to the elections in Turkey next year: The fact that this deal is now bursting is a setback for Erdogan, “especially when you consider that Erdogan had set himself an even greater goal: namely to bring Zelenskyj and Putin together and best of all to stand between them for a photo”.
The Turkish president also wants to mediate a ceasefire. The SPD member of the Bundestag Macit Karaahmetoglu, deputy chairman of the German-Turkish parliamentary group, says: “I believe that a line of talks can be established at least with Erdogan, also between the West and NATO There are people who can talk to Putin.” But Putin will not make concessions for Erdogan’s sake – or because he is afraid of Erdogan.
The day after tomorrow the convoy of grain carriers from Ukraine should arrive in Istanbul for inspection if nothing happens. This time, however, only inspection teams with Turkish representatives and the United Nations should go on board.
Turkey is fighting to continue the grain deal
Karin Senz, ARD Istanbul, October 31, 2022 5:23 p.m