A plucked traffic light coalition, a potential candidate for chancellor from the Union, a counted Federal Interior Minister and election winners on the right: these are the consequences of the elections for federal politics.
Bitter reminder for the traffic light coalition at the halfway point of the federal election period: The Chancellor’s Party SPD, with Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) at the helm, suffered a dramatic defeat in the election in Hesse and remains deep in the basement in Bavaria.
The FDP is likely to be thrown out of the state parliament in Bavaria and, according to the first projections in Hesse, has to worry about remaining in parliament. Despite significant losses, the Greens are still getting off comparatively lightly and could even continue to govern in Hesse with the CDU.
But it’s not just because of the clap for the traffic lights that the elections in the two populous countries, which account for almost a quarter of Germany’s total population, are shaking up federal politics. In addition to the AfD, the Free Voters, the winners include a second party from the right-wing fringe.
Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder’s result for the CSU is roughly at the same level as five years ago – so neither tailwind nor dampener for a possible candidacy for chancellor in 2025. And Interior Minister Faeser now has to tackle difficult tasks, especially when it comes to migration, in a significantly weakened position.
Vote of no confidence in the traffic lights
The drop in traffic lights in the polls – from 52 percent in the federal election to less than 38 percent – is now also reflected in concrete election results. The SPD has been hit particularly hard. In Bavaria she even beat her single-digit result from 2018. And in Hesse they even had to fear that evening that they would fall back from second place to fourth place behind the Greens and the AfD with their worst result to date.
The FDP is saying goodbye to at least one more state parliament and is therefore represented in a maximum of ten out of 16 parliaments. The Liberals have also reacted to previous election defeats in the federal states with riots in the coalition.
Now nervousness could also grow in the SPD. The parliamentary group recently went against the Chancellor’s position with its vote for a temporary industrial electricity price to cushion high energy prices. It is quite possible that calls for the party and parliamentary group to raise their profile on other issues will now become louder.
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert admitted that the results were also a signal to Berlin. One is not “deaf and blind,” he said. “There is also a message for us in this election result.”
Fibers counted, but not knocked out
After her crushing defeat, Interior Minister Faeser is now stumbling towards major challenges – especially when it comes to migration. She definitely does not want to return to the opposition bench in the state parliament, where she sat for almost two decades between 2003 and 2021, but instead wants to stay in her post in Berlin. But does your boss Olaf Scholz see it that way?
In 2012, a federal minister was fired once for messing up an election as the top candidate: CDU Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen received a certificate of dismissal from then Chancellor Angela Merkel (both CDU) after his defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia. Unlike Faeser, however, Röttgen had left it open until the election whether he would switch to the opposition in Düsseldorf if he were defeated.
However, it is quite unlikely that Scholz will drop Faeser. He doesn’t like to get carried away with such questions and even endured the bankruptcies and mishaps of Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) until it really wasn’t possible anymore. He has so far shown no doubts about Faeser and has expressly praised her several times in the last few days for her actions in reforming the European asylum system. Kühnert also made this clear on Sunday evening. The election result says nothing about Faeser’s competence as Interior Minister, he said.
Scholz doesn’t have a really good alternative either. He cannot replace a woman with a man a second time in a row, as was the case with Lambrecht. And most of the prominent women in the SPD are already taken: Katarina Barley, for example, has just been named the top candidate for the European elections and Franziska Giffey is probably irreplaceable for peace in the coalition with the CDU in Berlin.
Tailwind for the Union – but the K question remains open
The CDU and CSU can see the claps as a tailwind for the traffic light parties SPD and FDP in Bavaria and Hesse. But the signals from voters are unlikely to be meaningful for the Union’s K question before the 2025 federal election.
CSU boss Söder remains in the game – even if he repeatedly emphasizes that, unlike in 2021, he no longer has any ambitions for the chancellorship. They don’t really believe the assurances even in those around Bavaria – and certainly not in the CDU.
For Friedrich Merz, as CDU party and Union parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag, the black sisters’ natural candidate for chancellor, the next two years are likely to be quite uncomfortable. Nationwide, the Union has not been able to get past the 30 percent mark in surveys with the Sauerlander as the driving force for a long time.
Merz first congratulated Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) and Boris Rhein (CDU) on their election results in Bavaria and Hesse and at the same time called on his party to show unity. In a post on the X platform (formerly Twitter), Merz wrote to Rhein about a “sensational result”. This shows one thing above all: “Unity and clear positions pay off. If we all continue on this path together, the traffic light chaos will be over by the 2025 federal election at the latest.”
In the European elections next June and at the latest in the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in autumn 2024, the CDU under Merz is threatened with serious bankruptcies. It is quite possible that the Christian Democrats will then also be asked whether they would have better chances with Söder.
Right-wing parties win
The AfD was able to make gains in both Hesse and Bavaria, proving once again that its support is not just an East German mass phenomenon. The Free Voters should feel encouraged in their ambitions: significant gains in Bavaria. However, in Hesse they remain well below the five percent hurdle.
In Hesse, the Left is thrown out of the last state parliament in a western German state in which it was still represented – and that in the home of party leader Janine Wissler. The quarrels surrounding the removal of Sahra Wagenknecht and her supporters in the Bundestag faction, who may want to found a new party, may have contributed significantly to this.
There are still six months left until the permanent election campaign
Politicians in Berlin now have six months left to make progress on major issues such as restricting irregular migration, de-bureaucratization and the fight against the economic downturn. A long-term election campaign will begin in the spring of next year until the 2025 federal election.
On June 9th there will be a super election day with the European elections and local elections in nine countries. The state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg will follow in the fall. The election campaign for the 2025 federal election should then finally begin with the election of the Union’s candidate for chancellor.