After parliamentary elections: Portugal faces difficulties in forming a government

In the parliamentary elections in Portugal, the conservatives replaced the ruling Socialists as the strongest force. But it is not enough for an absolute majority. Will there be a minority government now?

In Portugal, it is becoming difficult to form a government following the narrow victory of the conservative party alliance Democratic Alliance (AD) in the parliamentary elections. The head of the alliance and chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Luis Montenegro, announced on the evening of the election that he expected that President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa would give him the task of forming the future cabinet.

According to the official results, the AD won 29.49 percent of the votes and will in future represent 79 of 230 members of parliament. The Socialists (PS), who have been in power since 2015, got 28.66 percent and 77 seats. The right-wing populist party Chega (“It’s enough”) more than doubled its share of the vote compared to the election two years ago to 18.06 percent and won 48 seats in the future parliament. It marked a shift to the right that can also be observed in other EU countries.

During the counting, the votes of the Portuguese living abroad, to whom four seats were allocated, were still missing. These results are expected in the coming days.

Portugal before possible minority government

Portugal could now be heading towards a minority government. The AD relies on partners in parliament because it does not have a government majority. AD leader Montenegro indirectly called on the voted-out socialists and the strengthened Chega to support them by appealing to them not to enter into a destructive alliance to prevent a new government.

A minority government with fewer than 116 seats would depend on the favor of opposition parties to pass laws. The election result has put Chega, which has only existed for five years, in the position of a kingmaker who could help the Social Democrats gain a parliamentary majority.

Grand coalition is considered out of the question

A grand coalition is considered impossible in Portugal: the two main parties have insurmountable differences. Against this background, quite a few observers assume that new elections are possible. The major parties had ruled out right-wing populists taking part in government before the election.

For the PS, which received 41 percent of the vote in 2022, the election outcome is a political disaster. So far, the Socialists have held 120 of the 230 seats in parliament due to the complicated system for distributing mandates.